College football picks, odds, best bets
Penn State firing James Franklin rightfully has dominated college football headlines this week, but that has only provided minor reprieve for Bill Belichick.
The UNC coach still sits in the crosshairs of critics and pundits.
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The Tar Heels are winless against power-conference schools, losing three games by a combined score of 120-33.
UNC faces California as a 9.5-point road underdog Friday night on ESPN with a total of 47.5 points. That is a big spotlight and platform for UNC, which could face even more criticism if they lay another egg.
The Tar Heels have given no reason to think its can make the cross-country trek and respond to adversity.
However, respected bettors have backed them, which caused this point spread to drop from a consensus line of 11.5 points.
Why are the so-called sharps backing the Heels? They are coming off a bye, and Belichick routinely baffled rookie quarterbacks during his Patriots tenure.
With Cal, he faces 19-year-old true freshman QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. The four-star recruit has looked great at times, but he does have seven interceptions compared to nine touchdown passes.
Additionally, UNC’s three losses have come against quality opponents.
Clemson obviously has stumbled this season, but the Tigers’ talent makes that loss excusable. TCU is also an understandable loss, and losing at UCF is by no means an embarrassment.
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The only embarrassments have been the margins of defeat and the publicity and behavior surrounding Belichick and 24-year-old girlfriend Jordon Hudson.
That noise can be suppressed if UNC actually plays up to preseason expectations.
If I had to bet the side, I would take the points.
However, my favorite angle is the total, which seems too high. Not only can Belichick stymie a Cal offense that ranks 88th in efficiency, the UNC offense ranks 116th.
The Bears are coached by Justin Wilcox, who climbed the ranks through defensive positions and has them ranked 62nd in efficiency.
I have a 70-56-2 ATS record in this Post sports section, and my next play is Under 47.5 points (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
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