Chances of heavy rain will return to Texas just a week after deadly flooding

The risk of heavy rainfall and severe weather is expected to return to the Lone Star State over the weekend, but the worst of the storms is expected to pass north of the areas recently devastated by July Fourth’s historic and deadly flooding.

Given the already saturated and highly vulnerable landscape across the Texas Hill Country, the FOX Forecast Center warned that people in the area should remain especially alert for any storms that develop in the region.

Thunderstorm complexes are forecast to develop Saturday afternoon over parts of the Texas Panhandle, Big Bend, and North Texas, forming on the eastern edge of a persistent heat dome gripping much of the western U.S.

The storms are expected to bring flash flooding, hail, and damaging wind gusts, with cities such as Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland, Abilene, and Dallas facing a risk of thunderstorms through the weekend and into the early part of next week.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 out of 4 flash flood threat that covers most of west Texas, the Panhandle, and North Texas.

Computer model guidance suggests some locations could receive as much as 2-4 inches of rain, though the heaviest precipitation is expected to remain north of the hard-hit Hill Country. 

“The problem is that the ground is super-saturated,” said FOX Weather Meteorologist Michael Estime, regarding the places devastated in the July Fourth floods. “It will take in spots, less than a half-inch of rain to actually lead to flooding.”

According to the National Weather Service, atmospheric moisture levels are forecast to climb into the 90th percentile for this time of year, primarily north of Interstate 20.

A weak steering flow means storms could move slowly and behave erratically, increasing the risk of flooding where thunderstorms train over the same area for an extended period. 

Just 6 inches of fast-moving floodwater can knock over an adult, and a foot of rushing water is enough to carry away a passenger vehicle.

Follow The Post’s coverage on the deadly Texas flooding

In areas that see rainfall and increased cloud cover, temperatures are expected to remain below seasonal averages into next week, providing some relief from the summer heat. However, much of central and southern Texas, areas in the recovery phase from the catastrophic flooding, will face dangerous heat instead of renewed flooding. 

Temperatures are forecast to reach the low 90s for the foreseeable future, with heat index values climbing above 100 degrees at times.

Hundreds of first responders and volunteers continue to search for the missing, a week after a deadly flood wave swept through several recreational sites along the Guadalupe River.

A cold front is expected to stretch from Canada through the Great Lakes and down into the Southern Plains, bringing a broad swath of showers and thunderstorms.