Can anybody upset Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz?

The 2025 Men’s U.S. Open gets underway Sunday, but the bookies are telling us we may as well wait two weeks before tuning into the tournament.

That’s because Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who have accounted for the last seven Grand Slams, are the runaway favorites to win the tournament, which features a field of 128 players.

Sinner, the World No. 1, is +110 to be the last man standing at bet365, while Alcaraz is just behind him at +162 odds.

If you combine the implied probability of those odds, you’d get an 85.8 percent chance that either Sinner or Alcaraz wins the tournament.

Fair odds for that number would be roughly -605 odds.

But just because the betting market views this as a two-horse race and a meeting between Sinner and Alcaraz feels inevitable, it doesn’t mean that it isn’t worth trying to find some value in the futures market.

The U.S. Open is known to produce a few surprises, like the 2014 final between eventual winner Marin Cilic and Kei Nishikori, and there are always some long shots who find their way to the semifinals.

Frances Tiafoe (twice), Ben Shelton and Karen Khachanov have all made it to the semifinals against the odds in recent years.

We’ll try to find the next surprising gatecrasher with our three long-shot bets at this year’s U.S. Open.

2025 US Open long shots

Frances Tiafoe (100/1, bet365)

There’s not too much to think about here.

Frances Tiafoe has been to the semifinals in two of the last three U.S. Opens, and he was one win away from making it three-for-three.

The Maryland native seems to make it a priority to peak at this time of year, making a run to the finals at the Cincinnati Masters in 2024 before his trip to the final four in Flushing a few weeks later.

Tiafoe will also benefit from a decent draw, which won’t stiffen up until a potential showdown with Holger Rune in the Round of 32, but even that is a manageable contest for Tiafoe. 

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Karen Khachanov (125/1, BetMGM) 

Like Tiafoe, Khachanov also seems to do his best work down the stretch of the tennis calendar.

The Russian is just a couple of weeks removed from a trip to the Cincinnati Masters, and he went to two finals (1-1) at the end of 2024, both on hard courts.

Khachanov’s all-around game and never-ending motor make him ideal for the hot, relentless conditions at the U.S. Open, and he also caught a great draw with no real threats until a potential match with Alex de Minaur in the Round of 16.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (150/1, BetMGM)

This is one of the last places I thought I’d land with a bet, but the draw and price got me.

It wasn’t that long ago that Stefanos Tsitsipas was considered one of the best players in the world and was regularly priced as one of the favorites to win the US Open.

Those days are gone, for now, as Tsitsipas’ form has plunged over the last 18 months, and his off-court dramatics have seemingly unsettled his once-promising career.

Tsitsipas is a two-time Grand Slam finalist, and he remains one of the most talented players on the ATP Tour. 

Drawn into the same quarter as Khachanov, Tsitsipas has a couple of easy early-round matches to get his game in order before the competition stiffens up.

There’s every chance Tsitsipas goes bust in Round 1 or 2, but if he has his act together, he has the potential to go quite deep against this draw.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.