Best bets, picks to target before lines move

The season is going by quickly.

Already approaching Week 5 of the NFL season, we take a look ahead as “Monday Night Football” is set to go off with a doubleheader.

The Jets head to Miami to face the Dolphins, while the Broncos play host to the injury-saddled Bengals.

Those games will certainly come into focus for our Week 5 early predictions, where we’ve gone 2-2 thus far but have also scored closing line value in three of our four picks.

The goal here is to get the best of the number and look for middle spots later in the week.

NFL Week 5 early predictions

Broncos (+5.5, ESPN BET) @ Eagles

Pro Football Focus’ two best offensive lines face off on Sunday, and I have some reservations about backing the Eagles this week.

I picked the Broncos to cover 7.5 against the Bengals on “Monday Night Football” and while it’s entirely possible that this doesn’t happen, I suspect that Denver matches up very well with Philadelphia.

Denver is actually rated the No. 11 team in DVOA this year, one spot ahead of the Eagles, so at the minimum, that statistic views this game as a coin flip on a neutral field.

If you give three points for home-field advantage, I’m viewing this as an additional 2.5 points that we are getting against the spread, which could be a solid value by game time on Sunday.

There is much we have to learn about the Broncos, but we know that the Eagles are currently struggling to throw the ball.

Giants (+1.5, BetMGM) @ Saints

Spare everyone your sorrows; no one feels bad for Big Blue that they lost Malik Nabers to an ACL injury. And let’s also just call the loss of a receiver due to this injury, and an ensuing live move of two points, overly dramatic.

Sure, Nabers was the biggest part of their offense. However, the Giants have just injected a new quarterback who defeated one of the Super Bowl favorites.

Jaxson Dart is a big fish that the Giants believe in.

Let’s say that Dart doesn’t play with what appeared to be a hamstring injury, and Russell Wilson is forced into the lineup instead.

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Betting on the NFL?

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I still would like Big Blue as an underdog because of that defense, which found its groove on Sunday.

A crazy stat that you might not know about: The Giants recorded a pass rush win rate of 68 percent on Sunday, the highest number of any game since the metric was introduced in 2017.

This is a nightmare matchup for the Saints, who are 27th in pass block win rate and 31st in run block win rate.

The Giants will be 2-3 after Week 5, and I suspect they will go off as favorites by Sunday.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.