Best bets for Saturday’s huge fight

Jake Paul is fighting another past-his-prime boxer Saturday night as he attempts to compete with UFC 317.

Paul matches up with Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., 39, and he will walk in as a -550 favorite.

Chavez, 54-6-1, is certainly on the downside of his career, having previously lost to former MMA fighter Anderson Silva in a boxing match.

Paul, of course, beat Silva in 2022, just over a year after Silva beat Chavez.

The math, literally and figuratively, favors Paul, who could just walk through his opponent Saturday.

Jake Paul vs. Cesar Chavez Jr. prediction

Of potential note, Paul opened as a -1100 favorite in this bout and money has since flown in on the underdog with Paul being bet down to -550 odds.

Paul opened at -310 odds against Mike Tyson and closed at -175, while betting opened at -250 before closing at -400 odds against Mike Perry.

This is to say: It’s not fair to say that people are betting against Paul because they don’t like him; this line movement is big enough that you could argue bigger, and potentially smarter, bets are on Chavez.

Looking at the math of Chavez losing to Silva and Silva getting smashed by Paul is not a fair comparison either.

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Chavez Jr. may have just had a rough night at the office that night as a -700 favorite.

There’s some value here on Chavez Jr., but no one would deny that he has a minimal chance at victory.

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Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps

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I’ll take a lottery ticket shot on him to win by decision, with the thought he’s in good enough shape he can avoid being hit by Paul for a bit.

Small bets only, back the veteran to win by decision, and use your boost token on FanDuel on him to win by decision.

PICK: Julio Caesar Chavez Jr. by decision +900 (boosted to +1360 with token on FanDuel)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.