Best bet, odds, pick for Game 1 of the NLDS
The odds could hardly be tighter for the NLDS between the Cubs and Brewers.
Milwaukee, which had the best record and run differential in baseball this season, is just -116 to win the series, which goes with the theme of the betting market being skeptical of the Brew Crew this season.
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The Brewers will throw Freddy Peralta in Game 1, and will have a decided pitching edge no matter if the Cubs decide to roll with Matthew Boyd on short rest, Javier Assad, or anybody else.
Milwaukee is a -150 favorite behind Peralta.
NLDS Game 1: Cubs vs. Brewers odds, prediction
Peralta has been terrific this season for Milwaukee.
The 29-year-old right-hander ranks in the 80th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard hit rate, xERA, expected batting average, whiff rate and strikeout percentage.
Peralta can mix it up with four pitches, but his bread-and-butter is his ability to blend his changeup and fastball.
Betting on Baseball?
It is appropriate that Peralta starting Game 1 is the only confirmed bit of roster management for this series so far, because there are question marks all over the place for both starting rotations.
But that’s what happens when you get to this part of the baseball calendar. Everybody is banged up, and it is a war of attrition from this point forward.
That should benefit the Brewers, who built their success on excelling at the fundamentals. Milwaukee’s offensive numbers may not sparkle, but they are solid, and they have a balanced lineup that can be re-worked depending on matchups and situations. Their depth and relentlessness should prove to be a key factor in this series.
This series could be chaotic. Both of these teams can beat you in a variety of ways, and they both feature some notable flaws, especially when it comes to their pitching depth.
That said, Peralta is the only bona fide ace in this matchup, and he’ll get two cracks at the apple for Milwaukee if this series extends into the deep end of the pool.
The price on Game 1 feels a little short, but I like the value on Milwaukee as a slight favorite to win the best-of-5, and wouldn’t be shy about backing the Brewers to win the series if they fall behind at any point.
The Play: Brewers to win the series (-116, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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