ATP Toronto odds, picks, predictions

The tennis calendar is relentless, and can make the sport feel like a bit of a chore at times, but there’s nothing quite like it when it peaks.

And it will do just that Wednesday night when the two best American players, Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton, meet in the semifinals of the Canadian Masters in Toronto.

This is just the second career meeting between Fritz and Shelton, with the first occurring in the first round of the Indian Wells Masters tournament in March 2023.

This match should have a much different feel from that contest, which Fritz won in three sets, as both players have taken massive strides in their respective careers.

ATP Toronto: Fritz vs. Shelton odds, predictions

Player	Odds
Taylor Fritz	-175
Ben Shelton	+137

It’s no surprise that Fritz is the favorite Wednesday night, given his edge in experience and his higher ranking, but some signals point to this match being closer to a coin flip than even these odds imply.

At the beginning of the season, you’d argue that Fritz was a good role model for Shelton in how he could advance his career.

Like the latter, the former burst onto the scene thanks to a massive serve, but his all-around game needed to catch up to his best weapon.

Eventually, the rest of Fritz’s game got to a point where he wasn’t too reliant on his serve, and he’s shot up the rankings because of that.

The Californian is ranked as the No. 4 player in the world (a career best), and has won 19 of his last 22 matches.

It’s been a banner 2025 campaign for Fritz, though he’d certainly like to add a second Masters title — and first since 2022 — to his mantle.

Shelton’s career has plenty of similarities to Fritz’s, but he seems to be accomplishing things at a quicker pace.

The former Florida Gator has established himself as a real threat at Grand Slams, and he’s got a couple of titles already under his belt.

The 22-year-old still can stand to be more consistent, but he’s already solidified himself as a top-10 player, and a little more growth in his game could see him make a push for one of the top four seeds at Grand Slams in 2026.

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With both players in terrific form and no real fitness concerns to worry about, Wednesday’s match points to a slobberknocker.

Given that both combatants have all-world serves, we’ll likely see a tiebreak or two, and that means that this match will likely be decided by a mistake, a break, or a bounce.

If that is the case, then the value is with the underdog, Shelton, to come out on top in a long one.

The Play: Shelton to win 2-1 (+350, bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.