As Putin grows more bold, here’s how Trump can fight back

After weeks of escalating strikes on Ukraine, Vladimir Putin sent three Russian fighter jets into NATO airspace on Friday headed towards the capital of Estonia — before Italian F-35s moved to intercept them.

Immediately afterwards, the European Union announced it would meet President Donald Trump’s conditions for sanctions by banning Russian energy.

Fresh polling finds that Republican voters are itching for action on Russia, and if Trump doesn’t move first Congress looks ready to force his hand.

Trump spelled out what he wants in exchange for sanctions last week. “I am ready to do major Sanctions on Russia . . . when all NATO Nations STOP BUYING OIL FROM RUSSIA,” he wrote in a letter to allies.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen gave in and announced that the EU will ban imports of Russian liquified natural gas a year ahead of schedule, handing Trump a big win and the chance to replace Moscow as a major LNG supplier for Europe.

If Trump doesn’t move soon to sanction the Russians, a major spike in support among his own base for action is giving Republicans in Congress the ammunition they need to pass sanctions without the president’s involvement.

For months, Congress has been sitting on sanctions legislation with a veto-proof majority of 85 cosponsors, hoping that Trump would act first. Senator Lindsey Graham and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick are now working to convince congressional leadership to add their sanctions on to must-pass legislation.

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson is on board, saying that “the time for appropriate sanctions against Russia is long overdue,” and that he’s “anxious to do it.”

The Speaker and his fellow pro-Ukraine Republicans have public opinion on their side.

The latest poll from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs shows a dramatic turnaround with 74% of Republicans supporting increased sanctions on Russia, along with a 21 point increase in Republican support for military assistance, while a Fox News poll finds a record 59% of voters think the United States should be doing more to help Ukraine.

Even if Trump keeps saying “this is Biden’s war,” the polls show that Americans think it’s his responsibility now.

The split-screen of Trump waving away Putin’s raids into NATO airspace with Russia’s escalating attacks on Ukrainian civilians, combined with surging public support, gives Congress all the cover it needs to act.

The Sanctioning Russia Act being pushed by Graham and Fitzpatrick has been a strong political rallying point, but the sanctions within it are less useful than the kinds of sanctions Trump himself can impose immediately, which would likely draw strong bipartisan applause.

To name a few:

* The United States could join the EU’s lower price cap on Russian oil and impose full blocking sanctions on Russian energy exports, as well as hammering the Russian shadow fleet of oil tankers.

* It could also go after exports of critical Western components that Russia needs for its weapons — for example, I keep a hunk of shrapnel from an Iskander missile in my office that was recovered from Ukraine, which relies on computer chips produced by Texas Instruments. It’s the same kind of missile the Russians just used to blow up the Ukrainian Prime Minister’s office.

* For another easy political win, Trump should activate the REPO Act passed by Republicans in Congress last year, which allows him to transfer billions in frozen Russian state assets to pay for assistance to Ukraine. Americans want to see Trump aid Ukraine — they’d love to see him make Putin pay for it.

But sanctions alone won’t bring Putin to the negotiating table. Russia has only gotten better at skirting them — Moscow’s Higher School of Economics even launched a master’s program in “sanctions evasion” this year.

The greatest pressure on Russia is the battlefield. Ukraine still needs the weapons necessary to defend against Moscow’s escalating air strikes, maintain the frontline, and bombard the factories and energy production facilities across Russia that keep the war running.

In August alone, Ukraine’s deep strikes knocked out 20% of Russia’s oil refining capacity. Paired with sanctions on the oil Russia does produce, the United States can help Ukraine dramatically cut into Putin’s war chest.

Since the Alaska meeting with Putin, Russia launched drones and missiles at European diplomatic buildings, an American factory, and to kill 25 retirees queuing for their pension checks. Last week, Moscow even launched 19 drones in an unprecedented raid into Poland.

Americans overwhelmingly believe that sanctions on Russia and weapons to Ukraine are the best way to achieve peace and they’ll reward Trump politically if he follows through. Trump should take the win for himself and save lives in Ukraine now.

Doug Klain is Deputy Director for Policy and Strategy at Razom for Ukraine, a U.S.-based nonprofit humanitarian relief and advocacy organization. He also serves as a Nonresident Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.