ALDS series odds, best bet, pick

The Yankees get another familiar face in the ALDS.

After Cam Schlittler carried the Yankees into the ALDS with a heroic Game 3 performance, they face the division-winning Blue Jays.

The hard-throwing rookie put together an all-time performance in Game 3 of the wild-card round, fanning 12 Red Sox hitters and holding Boston scoreless across eight innings.

The Bronx is buzzin’ about Schlittler, but the work isn’t done. Just hours after spraying champagne in the locker room, the Yankees had to get their passports ready for a trip to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays in the ALDS.

The best-of-5 series gets underway on Saturday at 4:08 p.m. ET.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays ALDS series odds, prediction

The Blue Jays may have home-field advantage in the ALDS, but the Yankees are the betting favorites to advance to the ALCS and play either the Mariners or Tigers.

The Bronx Bombers are -156 at FanDuel Sportsbook, which means the betting market projects the Yanks to have a 60.9 percent chance of winning the series, before you account for the vigorish.

Toronto is sitting at +132 at FanDuel, which puts their implied probability at 43.1 percent.

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Betting on Baseball?

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It may be a bit peculiar to see the team with home-field advantage as the decided underdog, but almost all the numbers suggest that the Yankees are the superior team.

The Yanks and Jays finished with identical records (94-68), but the Pinstripes more than doubled Toronto’s run difference, plus-164 to plus-77, over the course of the 162-game campaign.

According to Major League Baseball’s expected win-loss metric, which uses a team’s run difference to suggest a “fair” record, the Yankees should have gone 97-65, while the Jays should have wound up at 88-74.

If you go a little further under the hood, the tale of the tape continues to skew towards the Yanks. The Bombers led the Majors in home runs, wOBA, walk rate, wRC+, and slugging, while the Jays were tops in on-base percentage, two spots ahead of New York.

This isn’t to say Toronto’s offensive numbers pale in comparison — they don’t — but the edge goes to the Pinstripes.

The Yankees also boast a better overall statistical profile when it comes to pitching, though the Blue Jays have the edge when it comes to the bullpen.

Perhaps the most glaring red flag for Toronto is that its staff ranked near the bottom of the MLB in suppressing home runs. The Jays allowed 1.29 dingers per nine innings, which should play into the strength of the Yankee offense.

The one number that will give the Jays some confidence is that they performed well against the Yankees this season, winning eight of the 13 matchups.

Outside of the bullpen and the head-to-head splits, it’s hard to find a distinct advantage for the Jays. Even the stylistic matchup skews towards the Yankees, as the Jays don’t have the big southpaw that can force the Bombers to re-jig their lineup and go to Plan B.

Backing the Yankees to win the series quickly (-1.5 games or in a sweep) is one way to attack this best-of-5, but you could also opt to be patient and buy low on futures (American League Pennant, World Series) if the Bombers fall behind at any point.

But my favorite bet for this series to back Ben Rice to lead the matchup in home runs at 16/1 (DraftKings). Without the presence of a left-handed ace, Rice should get plenty of opportunities to do damage in this series, and I’d imagine that Blue Jays will pitch carefully to Aaron Judge, who is the clear favorite in this market.

That should give Rice a decent chance to set the pace.

The Plays: Yankees -1.5 Games (+135, FanDuel) | Ben Rice most home runs in series (16/1, DraftKings)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.