ALCS predictions, odds, best bets

OK, so George Kirby’s four-inning meltdown that amounted to eight earned runs spring boarded the Blue Jays to a 13-4 thrashing and all the momentum heading into Game 4 of the ALCS.

You need to take accountability in this business and I’ll be the first to admit my campaign for the Over on his strikeout aged like vinegar. All of the attributes to like were off, from his command to his predictability in his pitch sequencing. 

Toronto attacked early in counts and jacked up his pitch count to 75 in just those four frames. 

Shane Bieber’s breaking ball usage stupefied the Mariners, who whiffed 17 times on 45 swings. Bieber retired 17 of his next 19 batters after the two-run homer from Julio Rodriguez in the first.

Seattle is a swing-happy lineup and it couldn’t solve his slider and knuckle-curve once the Jays busted the flood gates open.

All that in mind, there’s reason to believe Max Scherzer won’t cast the same effect over the M’s on Thursday. The 41-year-old future Hall-of-Famer is entering this volcanic series making his postseason debut. 

He struggled mightily down the stretch, posting a 9.95 ERA through his final five starts. That was after an injury-plagued year that ultimately left him off of the ALDS roster. 

I’m hard-pressed to find any splits that lend confidence to Scherzer in this spot as his road ERA ballooned to 5.91 over 35 innings. 

Between Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez and Jorge Polanco, Seattle is top-heavy and rich with pull-side power. It leaves Scherzer, who is a fly-ball pitcher that has been home run prone (he allowed six longballs in his final five starts), a thin margin for error on elevated pitches. 

Not to mention, this was his single-worst season in allowing contact — he projected a career-high in xwOBA and his fastball velocity dropped per Statcast.

With the shaky command he left us with in September, Scherzer is too barrel prone against a lineup that wants to swing. 

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I may be doubling down on Seattle pitching again for similar reasons I did with Kirby, but Castillo offers a more compelling profile — especially opposite Scherzer. 

Castillo has yet to allow an earned run through six innings this postseason. His strikeout volume has surely regressed although he’s still proving a deceptive arsenal in high-leverage situations.

With five days of rest and a 2.60 ERA at T-Mobile Park across over 100 innings, Castillo is a safe side to back for a modest price. 

THE PLAY: Mariners (-120 at FanDuel)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.