Tesla shares weak average sales estimates as it appears on track for second annual decline in a row

Tesla published a surprisingly weak average estimate of vehicle deliveries on its website for the fourth quarter – putting it on track for its second consecutive decline in annual sales.

The Elon Musk-owned electric vehicle maker said analysts on average expect it to deliver 422,850 cars in the fourth quarter – a 15% drop from the same period last year.

Tesla typically compiles average delivery estimates, but it is unusual for the automaker to broadcast the figure on its investor relations site, especially considering it’s such a dismal number.

Its estimate was even worse than outside compilations like Bloomberg’s, which projected Tesla will deliver 445,061 vehicles in the fourth quarter, down 10% from last year.

According to its own compilation, Tesla is on track to deliver 1.6 million vehicles over the entire year – down more than 8% from 2024 and its second annual decline in a row.

Tesla did not immediately respond to The Post’s request for comment.

It suffered a sales slump earlier this year as the automaker retooled production lines at each of its assembly plants for its Model Y vehicles. 

At the same time, it faced intensified competition from Chinese rivals like BYD – which tripled its sales in July as Tesla plummeted.

Investors grew concerned about the company’s focus on artificial intelligence, robotics and autonomous technologies during earnings calls, instead of present-day opportunities.

Musk’s brand also suffered blowback from his ties to the Trump administration, earlier this year leading the cost-slashing body known as DOGE – leading to massive federal layoffs and cutting billions in foreign aid.

Protesters swarmed Tesla showrooms across the country and demonstrated outside Musk’s retro-futuristic diner in Hollywood. Tesla vehicles around the country have been set ablaze with molotov cocktails or vandalized.

The automaker’s deliveries rebounded to a record in the third quarter as panicked Americans rushed to buy EVs before the federal government’s $7,500 tax credits expired at the end of September.

It also rolled out pared-back versions of its Model Y SUV and Model 3 sedan, each less than $40,000, which helped dull the effect of the tax incentive disappearing.

Despite a rough sales year, shares in Tesla are poised to end 2025 higher. The stock has risen more than 20% so far this year.