USMNT set to learn how easy — or hard — its World Cup slate will be

The United States’ path through its home World Cup will become clear over the next 24 hours.

The Americans already know more than most teams entering Friday’s World Cup draw at the Kennedy Center in Washington D.C., with their three group games set for June 12, 19 and 25 in Los Angeles, Seattle and Los Angeles a second time.

The star-studded 48-team draw, though, will cement their opposition in those three games — as well as the group stage matchups not involving the U.S. — and give a real sense of how tough it will be to get through to the Round of 32.

Having automatically qualified as a host nation, the U.S. was helpfully put in Pot 1 of the draw, meaning that it will avoid most of the big-name soccer nations of Europe and South America that are quadrennial threats to hoist the trophy.

Each team at the World Cup is placed in one of four pots for the draw, with the best teams in theory being from Pot 1, the next level being in Pot 2 and so on.

Each of the 12 four-team groups for pool play that will be drawn Friday will consist of one team from each of the four pots. 

Though two European teams can be in the same group — a practical concession, as there are as many UEFA qualifying teams as there are groups — two teams from the same continent can otherwise not be drawn together.

For the U.S., that means it’s guaranteed they won’t be with Canada, Curacao, Mexico or Panama.

Still, the potential scenarios for the U.S. entering Friday run the gamut from cakewalk to doomsday.

A worst-case scenario for the U.S. would look something like a group with Colombia, Norway and one of the European playoff teams yet to be decided — a set of teams that could include a powerhouse like Italy.

A best-case would look more like facing Austria, Qatar and Cape Verde, all relatively smaller soccer nations that may not have qualified for the World Cup without this tournament being expanded from 32 to 48 teams.

Of course, something in between is most likely, and there are potential land mines in each pot for the Americans.

Pot 2 includes Croatia, Morocco and Colombia — two teams that were in the 2022 semifinals and a third in Colombia that looks to be a very tough out.

Uruguay, Japan, Senegal and Ecuador are among the potentially tough opponents from that pot as well, though the U.S. has the psychological edge of having beaten Uruguay 5-1 just a few weeks ago.

Norway, with the world’s best goal scorer in Erling Haaland and star midfielder Martin Odegaard, is the Pot 3 team everyone will want to avoid.

Scotland, Saudi Arabia and Egypt will all be tougher than they look.

From Pot 4, if the U.S. draws a team that has already qualified, or one in the intercontinental playoff, that would be a win.

It would be less than ideal if any of the four slots allotted to a yet-to-be-qualified team from the European playoffs came up; in particular Path A, which would be Italy should the Azzurri make it through.

Ukraine, Ireland, Poland, Denmark and Turkey are among the other teams in the European playoff that the U.S. should want to avoid.