NHL futures: The Washington Capitals are underrated again

The Washington Capitals came out of nowhere to win the Metropolitan Division last season.

The Caps were projected to be a bubble playoff team with a limited ceiling, but they defied those expectations with a 111-point campaign, the best mark in the Eastern Conference.

Washington fell short in the playoffs, losing in Round 2 against the Carolina Hurricanes, but that didn’t change the fact that it was a hugely successful season in D.C. and one that the Caps could build on going forward.

Logic would dictate that a performance like that would have raised Washington’s projections for 2025-26 considerably, but the opposite happened. The betting market tagged the Caps as a regression candidate, pricing them behind the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils, and basically on even footing with the Rangers. 

There were several reasons the skeptics were out for the Caps. The most popular argument was that so many players on Washington’s roster had career years in 2024-25, and it was not a repeatable feat. The Capitals also led the league in shooting percentage last season, which was another metric that pundits expected to regress.

Washington also didn’t bolster its roster in the offseason, which caused the majority of punters to overlook the Caps in favor of more trendy teams like the Hurricanes, Lightning, or Devils. 

All of this added up to the Caps entering the 2025-26 season as a 30/1 outsider in the Stanley Cup market.

You’d think that bookmakers would be quick to slash the prices on the Caps in response to a fast start, but the opposite is true. Washington is currently playing at a 101-point pace and boasts the best goal difference in the Eastern Conference, but they’ve barely budged in the futures market.

Entering play on Tuesday, the Caps were 25/1 to win the Stanley Cup (bet365, BetMGM) and 13/1 to win the Eastern Conference, well behind the Hurricanes, Panthers, Lightning and Devils. 

It doesn’t add up.

Not only is Washington hanging with the heavyweights in the East in terms of its record, but the Caps boast one of the best statistical profiles in the NHL. 

Only one team, the juggernaut Avalanche, is allowing fewer goals per game, and only two clubs, Colorado and Carolina, boast a better expected goals rate at 5-on-5. Washington is also third in shot attempt rate, meaning the Caps are dominating possession at even strength for the most part. 

And it’s not just the defensive work that looks great. Washington is seventh in the NHL in goals per game, and the Caps are second to Colorado in terms of high-danger scoring chances created at 5-on-5. 

The goaltending is also a strength, with Logan Thompson currently sitting as the favorite to win the Vezina Trophy. Thompson’s deputy, Charlie Lindgren, is widely considered one of the best backups in the league. 

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Perhaps the one knock against the Caps is that they lack the game-breaking talent that many of the teams ahead of them in the betting market boast. The counter to that argument is that Washington’s depth is much stronger than almost any other club. There are no real weaknesses here.

The betting market is always going to be skeptical of a team immediately after it defies expectations, but it’s clear that the bookies and the bettors are overlooking one of the best teams in the NHL right now. 

If a more glitzy team like the Rangers, Maple Leafs or Oilers were putting up the numbers that the Capitals are, they’d already be at the top of the board with the Avalanche.

Washington, however, is flying under the radar for now, so the time to act on the Caps is now.

The Play: Capitals to win the Stanley Cup 25/1 (bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.