Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown picks, odds, best bets

The week before a massive pay-per-view, we head back to the warehouse for UFC Vegas 111.

We have 12 fights ahead of the card in this weekend’s better-than-average UFC Fight Night.

Just four of the 12 fights are projected to go to decision, so it could be a shorter night than usual. The action begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+. Here are my UFC full-card predictions:

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown

It’s Randy “Rudeboy” Brown’s last chance at a run at welterweight. Brown, 35, is a winner of eight of his last 10 fights, but none of those wins were particularly impressive, and his losses were against the top competition in the sport.

Brown lost to the current champion, Jack Della Maddalena, while also narrowly being defeated by Bryan Battle.

Brown will have difficulty dealing with Bonfim’s grappling, which is among the best in the UFC, and he has a phenomenal submission.

Bonfim has generally been selling out for finishes in his career en route to a strong 18-1 record. He has an insane finish rate; of his 18 wins, 14 have been by submission.

But recently, we have seen him slow things down a bit, which I actually think is an unwise decision against Brown, who has a history of wilting under the brightest lights.

However, I think the decision line of this fight is out of whack. Brown should be very inviting of a slower pace if offered, while Bonfim has never been five rounds and appeared to wilt as Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson moved forward last time out.

The decision line at +240 is enough for me to jump, but if it ends early, it probably ends via front headlock in the first two rounds. So don’t target the over props in this one.

Recommendation: Fight goes the distance (+240, Fanatics). 

Matt Schnell vs. Joseph Morales

Schnell is still in the UFC and faces Morales, who is in his second stint in the promotion. 

Morales, 29, hasn’t exactly been the most consistent fighter, having fought only once since 2023.

Schnell, 35, is 17-9, having lost three of his last four fights after he defeated Jimmy Flick back in April.

Generally, Schnell is the guy who looks to grapple and has very questionable durability when defending strikes.

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Morales has been there and done that in the UFC, and is a worthy -400 favorite here after having fought the elite of the elite already.

Schnell isn’t a step down in competition for Morales, who works fast and has legitimate power and grappling chops.

This might be the end of the UFC road for Schnell, and Morales is an excellent parlay piece on the moneyline.

Recommendation: Morales wins inside the distance (-110, BetMGM). 

Rest of the card

Muslim Salikhov vs. Uros Medic: Over 1.5 rounds (+140, DraftKings).

Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim: Bonfim ML (-195, Caesars).

Ricky Simon vs. Raoni Barcelos: Simon by decision (+130, ESPN BET).

Christian Leroy Duncan vs. Marco Tulio: Fight does not go the distance (-130, FanDuel).

Hyder Amil vs. Jamall Emmers: Amil by KO/TKO (+165, Fanatics).

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti: Bueno Silva by decision (+460, Fanatics).

Josh Hokit vs. Max Gimenis: Fight starts Round 2 (-130, DraftKings)

Tecia Pennington vs. Denise Gomes: Gomes by decision (+110, DraftKings).

Miles Johns vs. Daniel Marcos: Marcos by decision (+350, BetMGM).

Jackson McVey vs. Zachary Reese: Reese and Over 1.5 rounds when available. 

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.