NFL Week 9 picks, odds, best bets

The biggest game of Week 9 of the NFL season, and arguably the most exciting game of the season, is Chiefs vs. Bills.

This rivalry has come to define the NFL in the first half of the 2020s in large part because of the two stellar quarterbacks at the helm of each team the same way Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning defined mid-to-late 2000s. Patrick Mahomes (+125) and Josh Allen (+350), currently have the best odds to win the 2025 NFL MVP, which would be their third and second respectively if either man wins the award.

These teams have also met head-to-head in the NFL playoffs for four of the past five seasons — the Chiefs are undefeated in the playoff games, but 1-4 in the regular season.

The Chiefs enter the latest installment as 2-point road favorites and are 1-1 outright and against the spread in that spot.

On the injury front, the Bills won’t have defensive tackle DaQuan Jones (calf) or Ed Oliver (bicep), linebacker Shaq Thompson (hamstring), or receiver Josh Palmer (knee/ankle) and corner Taron Johnson (groin) is questionable.

For the Chiefs, offensive lineman Josh Simmons (personal) remains out and back Isiah Pacheco (knee) won’t play. Offensive linemen Trey Smith (back) and Jaylen Moore (illness) are questionable, but the former did practice Friday.

The philosophy of these two teams are different, but the resulting success has both the Chiefs and Bills in tier. The Bills are the best running team in the league — first in total rushing yards (1,151) and Yards per Attempt (5.2) — behind the second-leading rusher in the NFL, James Cook. The Chiefs have the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL (2,014) and the eighth-best Net Yards per Attempt mark (6.8) in the league.

The Chiefs have seen a noticeable uptick in their offensive output since Week 4. Even after a slow start that saw Mahomes thrown an interception on the Chiefs’ first two drives, the Chiefs put up 28 points on the Commanders.

The Bills have shown the ability to be explosive at various points this season with five games scoring 30-plus points and two games scoring 40 or more points this season. The only time they haven’t those marks this season were the two games they had multiple turnovers.

The Chiefs have the second-best scoring defense (16.4 PPG), but that number is skewed a bit by their 31-0 blowout against the Raiders and their 28-7 win last week against the Commanders without Jayden Daniels.

---

Betting on the NFL?

---

Buffalo ranks ninth in points allowed (20.9), but do a great job of pressuring and suppressing quarterbacks, allowing just 161.9 passing yards per game. They are a team that can be run on, though, allowing 5.5 yards per rush and 150.3 per game, which both rank 31st in the NFL.

What excites me most about this particular matchups is the timing. The Chiefs have a bye week on the back end of this game and the Bills are coming off a bye week. I think that means we’ll get the best of both teams at this point in the season.

I believe these two offenses are as good as advertised, but I’m not totally sold on either defense living up to its potential when facing an elite quarterback.

Mahomes does a great job of avoiding pressure and he has been effective as a runner with the second-most yards for the Chiefs. Allen’s ability as a runner has always made him tough to contain, but the way he spreads the ball around is what makes the offense really hum.

This total has risen from 50.5 to 52.5 at most books, and the public is, unsurprisingly, on the Over, which is typically a reason to be skeptical. Call me a square, but I think that’s the right call. I’ll take the Over at 52.5 and expect another classic between these two teams.

The Play: Over 52.5 (-107, BetRivers)

---

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.