Most New Jerseyans think their neighbor voted for Ciattarelli: shock poll

New Jersey voters are seeing red wherever they go.

Democratic New Jersey gubernatorial hopeful Mikie Sherrill may be ahead in the polls, but a majority of Garden State voters think their neighbors are voting for Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a stunning survey found.

A surprising 53% of likely NJ voters believe their co-workers and neighbors are supporting Ciattarelli, compared to 47% who said the same about Rep. Sherrill (D-NJ), according to a poll from Quantus Insights.

That same poll also pegged Sherrill with a slim 49% to 46% lead over Ciattarelli.

“This finding shows that Republicans, Democrats and Independents alike recognize that momentum is surging for Jack Ciattarelli, and that’s why he’s on track to win next Tuesday,” New Jersey-based GOP strategist Jeanette Hoffman told The Post.

Most polling has given Sherrill an edge over Ciattarelli in the New Jersey gubernatorial race, where she touts a 3.7 percentage point advantage, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate.

But, the RCP aggregate also underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by about five percentage points when he narrowly lost to then-incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) in 2021.

That history has led to widespread uncertainty about the reliability of this year’s polls.

“Asking voters a question about what they think their fellow citizens will do can be pretty accurate, because it gauges the momentum of campaigns on the ground,” Hoffman added.

Among GOP voters, the perception that their neighbors are backing Ciattarelli is much higher, with 83% thinking their supporting the Republican contender.

In addition to her polling lead, Sherrill has also been boosted by her Democrats’ advantage over Republicans in early voting. So far, 54% of early voters are Dems compared to 28% Republicans; 18% are undeclared or have another party affiliation, according to data compiled by Michael Pruser, Director of Data Science for Decision.

However, only 29% of likely voters have cast their ballots early as of Wednesday, including 35% of Democrats and 24% of Republicans, per the survey.

The Quantus Insights poll sampled 1,380 likely voters between Oct. 26–27 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Election Day is Tuesday.