Picks against the spread for every game

From a bettor’s standpoint, anyone who’s not a die-hard Giants fan who took Big Blue +7.5 points last week in Denver came away happy with the result.  

Everyone’s already seen, read about, or heard about the Giants’ 33-32 loss to the Broncos, a game in which the Giants led 19-0 early in the fourth quarter and 26-8 with a little more than four minutes to go.

An unfathomable interception by Jaxson Dart on a play that should have been a run call to sap Denver’s final timeout, Jude McAtamney’s second missed PAT of the game after the Giants had improbably retaken the lead, and a complete collapse by the defense, fueled by questionable strategy, all conspired to allow the Broncos to score 33 fourth-quarter points.

All that, and Denver never came close to covering the spread. And for the non-Giants-fan bettor, there was plenty of good to take away. Dart threw three touchdown passes and has done a great job turning a variety of lower-level receivers into weapons after the injury to Malik Nabers. Not a lot of teams are able to dominate the Broncos for three quarters in Mile High as thoroughly as they did.

But one look at the Giants trudging off the field — particularly the images of a dejected Dart and a livid Brian Burns — makes you wonder if this experience is going to be worth more than just one loss. Will they be able to shake this off in time for their visit to Philadelphia on Sunday?

This one might leave a mark, particularly if the players start to question the in-game decisions of head coach Brian Daboll and defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, or the wisdom of GM Joe Schoen to suit up a sub-NFL level kicker.

There are two primary reasons to back the Eagles as 7.5-point favorites at the Linc.

l They are just 2 ¹/₂ weeks removed from a 34-17 destruction at the hands of the Giants at MetLife Stadium. On the NFL calendar, that counts as an ultra-rapid revenge spot. 

l They finally incorporated the passing game into their offense in a 28-22 win at Minnesota. Jalen Hurts completed 19 of 23 for 326 yards and three touchdowns, and both DeVonta Smith (183 yards receiving) and A.J. Brown (121) had a chance to eat. When they lost to the Giants in the previous game, it was still all about the Tush Push. Now the Giants defense will have a lot more to worry about, and that could, in turn, lead to Saquon Barkley’s first breakout of the season.

From practical and psychological standpoints, this is shaping up as a double-digit Philadelphia victory.

The pick: Eagles -7.5. 

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-6.5) over New York Jets

In and of itself, what Woody Johnson said Tuesday at the owners’ meetings wasn’t wrong. An NFL team can’t win when its quarterback can’t complete a pass. But the way the Jets owner took down Justin Fields was stunning. His disdain for Fields was palpable, as was the lack of respect. Johnson didn’t even mention his name.

For another team, something like this might have a positive effect. Players might say, “Yes, we’re finally going to start the better quarterback! Now we have a chance.”

But for the Jets, it’s just another sideshow, one of many in Johnson’s tenure as owner. It only serves to amplify all of the horrendous decisions he’s made to keep the Jets outside the playoffs for 15 years. As if he didn’t hire Aaron Glenn, who handpicked Fields after casting away Aaron Rodgers.

It’s a surprise this spread is under a touchdown. The Bengals had been a disaster, but the arrival of Joe Flacco changed that as he’s gotten the ball to Ja’Marr Chase 26 times in the past two games.

Miami Dolphins (+7.5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

Quiz question (don’t peek): Which team is averaging more points scored per game, the Falcons or the Dolphins? Surprising answer: It’s the Dolphins, 20.0 to 18.3. The Falcons are clearly the better team, but can’t be trusted with a TD-plus spread. Keep an eye out for reports on Michael Penix Jr.’s status with a knee injury.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) over Cleveland Browns

Drake Maye and the Patriots have won four in a row, including the past three on the road. The past two of those were our Locks of the Week, but there were some sweats against the Saints and Titans. Laying the points because the Browns’ No. 1 yardage defense doesn’t quite match their mid-pack points-per-game allowed numbers.

Buffalo Bills (-7) over CAROLINA PANTHERS

Andy Dalton is in line to replace Bryce Young (ankle) for the Panthers, who will look to leverage their No. 3 rushing attack against the Bills’ 31st-ranked rushing defense. I figure this will be the best version of the Bills, though, coming off two losses, then a bye. They also have the No. 1 rushing offense, thanks in part to Josh Allen, who could be ready to go off.

Chicago Bears (+6.5) over BALTIMORE RAVENS

This spread seems predicated on Lamar Jackson returning from his hamstring injury and completely reviving the Ravens from their four-game losing streak. That might not happen, and if he does return, he could still have issues. And the Ravens are 1-3 in Jackson’s starts anyway. The Bears have some injury concerns (D’Andre Swift, DJ Moore) and could be due for a dud, but we’ll take our chances with the hefty head start.

San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) over HOUSTON TEXANS

The line flipped favorites on Brock Purdy’s continuing uncertainty, even after the 49ers won and the Texans lost last week. Mac Jones, Kyle Shanahan and a healthy Christian McCaffrey are enough for me. And though the 49ers have backups of backups listed as questionable, the Texans don’t have much firepower to exploit that.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+4) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tough situational spot for the Saints, who have a myriad of key injuries and are just 60 minutes of football away from a much-needed bye. We love Baker Mayfield in this space, but his knee injury was a huge factor in the loss to Detroit, as he couldn’t scramble and was high on many throws. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-14.5) over Tennessee Titans

Giving two TDs with the Colts was not on my 2025 betting bingo card, but here we are. Indianapolis won the first meeting 41-20 in Nashville in Week 3. Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor will be unstoppable. The only intrigue will be whether Cam Ward can generate enough offense to get in the back door, but at 13.7 ppg, that isn’t likely.

Dallas Cowboys (+3.5) over DENVER BRONCOS

Don’t forget the Broncos nearly lost to the Jets and were getting crushed by the Giants the past two weeks. Patrick Surtain II will be on CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens, but not both at the same time. Looking forward to seeing Dallas’ Brandon Aubrey break the field-goal record at altitude.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (+3) over Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers vs. his team of 18 seasons. The Steelers’ defense was embarrassed last week by Joe Flacco. With a few extra days to prepare, looking for T.J. Watt to reassert himself and for Rodgers to ball out in what could turn out to be a special Sunday night spotlight.

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Monday

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-12.5) over Washington Commanders

This line skyrocketed when Jayden Daniels was ruled out with a hamstring injury. Chiefs look destined for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but at 4-3 they’re going to have to start rolling to get there, so there’s motivation every week. 

BEST BETS: Bengals, Cowboys, Chiefs. 

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Bengals (Locks 3-4 in 2025).

LAST WEEK: 9-6 overall, 3-0 Best Bets.

THURSDAY: Vikings.