Poll shows Mamdani overtaking Cuomo in NYC’s ranked choice primary

Lefty upstart Zohran Mamdani has leapfrogged over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the city’s ranked choice Democratic primary for mayor, according to a stunning new poll released Monday.

In its hypothetical initial round of voting, Cuomo’s lead shrinks to 3 percentage points, with 35% of likely Democratic voters supporting him compared to 32% for Mamdani and 13% for city Comptroller Brad Lander, the Emerson College Polling/Pix 11/The Hill survey found.

City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams follows with 8%, Scott Stringer 3% and 5% split between candidates Zellnor Myrie, Whitney Tilson, Jessica Ramos and Michael Blake, with another 4% undecided.

But since no one garners the more than 50% of the vote needed to win outright, the ranked choice system kicks in. That means that even if a voter’s first choice is eliminated in successive rounds of calculations, their other picks could still be in the mix and emerge as the eventual overall winner.

Mamdani finally surpasses Cuomo in the eighth round of the simulated ranked choice voting — 51.8% to 48.2% — in the latest poll conducted June 18-20.

“Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

“In the ranked-choice simulation, Mamdani gains 18 points compared to Cuomo’s 12, putting him ahead in the final round for the first time in an Emerson poll.”

Cuomo had led Mamdani by 12 points in the initial ballot in the Emerson poll last month and still finished up 8 points ahead of Mamdani in the 10th round of ranked choice voting at the time — 54% to 46%.

Mamdani has Lander’s voters to thank for his surge in the new poll.

Cuomo has a 1 percentage point lead — 40.5% to 39.4% in the seventh round — when Brad Lander is eliminated with 20% of the vote.

Most of Landers’s voters then switch to Mamdani instead of Cuomo in round eight — putting the Democratic Socialist Queens assemblyman up by 3.6 percentage points.

Lander cross-endorsed Mamdani as his preferred candidate if he himself does not prevail. The left-wing Working Families Party also urged voters not to rank Cuomo.

Other polls, including a Marist College Institute for Public Opinion survey released last week, show Cuomo winning but Mamdani closing ground.

The Emerson College poll asked voters if they have already cast their ballots during early voting or are waiting to vote on primary day, Tuesday.

Voters who have already cast their ballots during the early voting period have broken for Mamdani,
who holds a 10-point lead over Cuomo, 41% to 31%.

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Cuomo leads Mamdani 36% to 31% among voters who plan to vote Tuesday.

There are big differences between the men by age and race.

Voters under 50 back Mamdani by a 2 to 1 margin, while Cuomo leads among Dems ages 50 to 59 by 63% to 37% and those over age 60 by 56% to 44%.

Black voters favor Cuomo 62% to 38% over Mamdani.

Hispanic voters also support Cuomo 60% to 40%.

But Mamdani leads among white voters 61% to 39% and among Asian voters 79% to 21%. The Ugandan-born Mamdani is Indian-American or of South Asian descent.

Cuomo leads Mamdani among voters without a four-year college degree 61% to 39%, while
Mamdani leads Cuomo among college-educated voters 62% to 38%.

Men support Mamdani 56% to 44%, while women lean toward Cuomo 52% to 48%.

The new ranked choice poll of 729 likely Dem voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, which means the race is up for grabs.

Emerson College conducted the survey by contacting voters by text on their mobile phones and by landline robocalls along with an online panel of voters.

In the last poll before the 2021 Democratic primary for mayor, the Emerson College poll had Eric Adams leading Kathryn Garcia 52% to 48%. Adams won by less than 1 percentage point.