Three picks, best bets for Saturday’s slate
The entire college football world is ganging up on Penn State and former head coach James Franklin.
It’s been a nightmare season for the Nittany Lions, and it’s come from absolutely nowhere.
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Penn State was a three-point loss to Notre Dame away from a trip to the national championship last year, and was pegged as the No. 2 team in the country in the AP’s preseason poll.
A decent start to this season backed up the hype, but everything came undone in three weeks.
An overtime loss to Oregon, an embarrassing blowout against winless UCLA, and then a feeble response in a losing effort against Northwestern.
Goodbye, James Franklin.
As much fun as it’s been kicking the Nittany Lions while they’re down (we backed Northwestern to lead this column last week), it’s now time to reverse course.
College football is all about ebbs and flows. If you find yourself consistently backing trendy teams and fading the unfashionable ones, you’re going to have a hard time winning. Buying low and selling high is a foundational part of becoming a successful handicapper.
Iowa is a 2.5-point favorite at home against Penn State on Saturday.
The Hawkeyes still have everything to play for, even with two losses, but that doesn’t mean they’ll just roll over Penn State, which is being priced like a dead-team-walking.
Drew Allar’s injury is bad news on paper, but it’s not like Ethan Grunkemeyer and the offense will need to light it up. The Hawkeyes are not an offensive juggernaut.
These two defenses will slug it out, and an inspired performance from Penn State should be in the cards after the last three weeks.
Nittany Lions pull the upset.
Pick: Penn State +2.5 (-104, FanDuel)
GEORGIA (-7.5, +102) over Ole Miss
Do we really know how good either one of these teams is?
No. 5 Ole Miss is undefeated with a win over LSU in its pocket, but the Rebels also had close calls against Kentucky, Arkansas and Washington State.
There are also questions to be asked about just how impressive a win over LSU is, considering how they’ve played over the first half.
Georgia, on the other hand, has a loss, but it came against Alabama. There have been some middling moments in other games, but the Bulldogs have found a way to get the job done.
I expect them to do the same here against trendy quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who hasn’t seen a defense like this one yet this season.
Washington State (+17.5, -105) over VIRGINIA
Wazzu was featured in our ‘Ugly Underdog’ column last week, and I was tempted to go right back to the Cougars in a familiar spot.
They’ve got no conference to call home, so they’re just traveling the country looking to spoil the party for other teams.
They came very close to pulling it off against Ole Miss in Oxford in Week 7, and now will head to Charlottesville to try to upend Virginia’s fairytale season.
Betting on College Football?
Hard to see the Cavaliers being up for this one, considering they have a real shot at making it to the ACC Championship game if they run the table on the other side of their meeting with Wazzu.
Not a bad big upset pick.
LAST WEEK: 3-0. Northwestern (W), Arkansas (W), Texas A&M (W)
SEASON: 15-6
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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