Week 6 NFL player props, picks, best bets: Stefon Diggs, Elic Ayomanor

Long shots are the wave in the NFL player prop betting market.

Some call them “ladders,” where you take the low end of an Over/Under prop and then bet smaller units on more “long-shot” numbers at higher prices.

Last week, we nailed Jaxson Smith-Njigba to go Over 125 receiving yards (+410), but that was the extent of the wins.

We went 2-4 and profited one unit. We’ve profited every week besides Week 2.

Our season total: 12-20 (+2.43 units: ROI: 7.59%).

Week 6 NFL player prop bets

Tetairoa McMillan Over 68.5 receiving yards (-114, DraftKings) | 150+ (+1460, DraftKings)

We know how bad the Cowboys’ defense is. Now, let’s bet against it.

Tetairoa McMillan is a highly productive receiver, and the Cowboys’ defense should have fits attempting to bottle him up.

Here’s how Dallas fared against WR1 dating back to Week 2:

• Malik Nabers: 9-167-2
• Rome Odunze: 3-62-1
• Romeo Doubs: 6-58-3
• Garrett Wilson: 6-71-1

McMillan is by far Bryce Young’s preferred target and is worthy of your hard-earned money.

McMillan pops this week for the first time, and is a good bet to get into the end zone as well, coming in at +145 odds at bet365.

Stefon Diggs Over 60.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) | 100+ (+420, BetRivers)

Everyone wrote off Stefon Diggs when he started off slow coming off a torn ACL.

Diggs went nuclear last week when he put up 146 yards against his former team in the Buffalo Bills.

The New Orleans Saints aren’t the team that will be stopping Diggs on Sunday.

They’ve struggled against top receivers this season, allowing Marvin Harrison Jr, Jauan Jennings, Smith-Njigba and Khalil Shakir to roast them for at least 69 yards receiving, and all have scored a touchdown.

Part of my reasoning for being bullish on Diggs is he’s put up strong production in limited-ish snap counts, playing in just 50 percent of snaps last week and 63 percent the week before.

As Diggs recovers from injury, he should see his snap rates increase as a result.

---

Betting on the NFL?

---

Elic Ayomanor Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115, DraftKings) | 80+ (11/1, bet365)

Elic Ayomanor has usurped Tyler Lockett as the WR2 in Tennessee, and the betting market hasn’t properly reacted to this.

Coming off a win, I expect Came Ward to lock in on Ayomanor a bit more, considering he was on the field for 72 percent of snaps last week, the most among all of Tennessee’s receivers.

The Raiders are a mostly joke in terms of allowing receivers to toast them. You may remember New England’s Kayshon Boutte went for 103 yards on six receptions in Week 1, and I think it’s absolutely possible that Ayomanor goes for a similar performance in this one.

This line confuses me, as Ayomanor has beaten this line in three of five games, and in games that he didn’t, he had four targets and seven targets.

So, we know the volume will be there.

Las Vegas has the third-worst coverage grade, according to Pro Football Focus, and they’re rated 22nd against the pass.

We will have a Titans team that should be behind and I think this is the final time we will get a receiving line this low on Ayomanor, a prospect who I am very bullish on.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.