Odds, picks, best bet for SEC showdown

Florida might just do it again.

After getting off to a miserable start in 2024, the Gators turned things around down the stretch en route to an 8-5 campaign that saw Florida beat LSU, Ole Miss, Florida State and Tulane to close out the campaign.

The strong finish saved Billy Napier’s job, and it also raised expectations for 2025. In fact, the Gators were a trendy dark horse to gatecrash the SEC Championship game this season.

Instead, Florida started the campaign with one win from its first four games and that victory came against Long Island University.

Losses to South Florida, LSU, and Miami put Napier right back on the hot seat, with a Week 6 clash against Texas hyped up as a win-or-get-fired situation.

Not only did Florida beat Texas, but the Gators did it in such a fashion that everybody is now wondering if this team has another season-closing run in it.

We’ll learn the answer to that question Saturday night when Napier and the Gators travel to Kyle Field as big underdogs against No. 5 Texas A&M.

Florida vs. Texas A&M odds, prediction

This is one of the most interesting games to handicap of the season so far.

Florida came into Week 1 with a lot of hype, while Texas A&M was flying under the radar in Year 2 of Mike Elko’s tenure.

While the Gators were stumbling over every hurdle to start the campaign, the Aggies passed some significant tests against Notre Dame, Auburn and an improved Mississippi State.

In other words, Texas A&M has done nothing wrong yet this season, while Florida has basically done one thing right: Beat an overrated Texas team in an advantageous schedule spot.

And yet, it’s the Gators who are going to be the trendy pick Saturday night, as bettors lean into the idea that Florida is up to its old tricks.

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Betting on College Football?

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That seems like a dangerous game to play. One week ago, everybody was ready to call it a season in Gainesville, but one win over the unimpressive Longhorns has completely flipped the narrative.

Florida closed as a 4.5-point underdog at home to Texas last weekend. That would imply that the Longhorns would be roughly a 10.5-point favorite at home when you adjust for home-field advantage.

Texas A&M is better than Texas, and yet, the Aggies are -7.5 and trending towards -7.

This is a good spot to fade Florida.

The Play: Texas A&M -7.5 (-102, FanDuel)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.