WNBA Finals picks, odds, best bets

The Phoenix Mercury entered the WNBA Finals with so much confidence that it sure felt more like trash talk, though the Las Vegas Aces owned home-court advantage and had won two championships in the previous three years.

The Mercury started off great, leading nearly all of Game 1, but things then took a negative turn, and they now find themselves in a 2-0 hole as the series shifts to Phoenix.

The Mercury are 3.5-point home favorites in Game 3 with a total of 164.5 points.

I do think Phoenix bounces back and makes it a series again, but I am still reluctant to lay the points with such an inconsistent team. And the main source of that inconsistency is 3-point shooting.

After making 14 3’s in Game 1, the Mercury shot just 5-for-28 from behind the arc in Game 2.

That decline has been discussed in media sessions, and I think it’s a good opportunity to buy low for a team that will prioritize outside shooting. 

Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper are Phoenix’s main shooters, in addition to Sami Whitcomb off the bench. I’d imagine coach Nate Tibbetts wants to get them free on the perimeter.

In a 2-0 series hole, Phoenix figures to play with much more energy and desperation than we see from Las Vegas. That’s just the nature of playoff basketball, whether it is the WNBA or NBA.

So, in this case, I like to back player props involving that team.

Copper is an aggressive player and will shoot plenty, given she has 17 3-point attempts through the first two games. Additionally, Sabally has 16 attempts from downtown.

---

Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps

---

I think that continues and both will find makes, as I also expect the Aces defense to relax a bit.

I have a 68-54-2 ATS record in this Post sports section and my next play is a same-game parlay with Sabally to make two 3-pointers and Copper to make one. Those odds are -122 at FanDuel.

BET: Satou Sabally 2+ 3-pointers + Kahleah Cooper 1+ 3-pointer (+122, FanDuel)

---

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.