Odds, best bet, pick for ADLS Game 4

The Yankees have The Bronx believing again.

Aaron Judge’s heroics and a stifling performance from the much-ridiculed bullpen not only pulled the Yanks back from the brink, but completely shifted the momentum of the ALDS — if you believe in that sort of thing.

As fans, it’s okay to get swept up in the delirium that only a game like the one we saw Tuesday night provides, but as bettors you need to be measured and do your best to put emotions aside.

Does that mean you should fade the Yankees in Game 4?

Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Game 4 odds, prediction

Cam Schlittler gets the start for the Yankees, just six days removed from his life-changing performance against the Red Sox in Game 3 of the wild-card series.

Schlittler had everything going in that game, but it was his command that really surprised everybody in his 12-strikeout, no-walk performance against Boston.

The righty flashed an electric arm since his debut in July, but, like plenty of other young flamethrowers, the 6-foot-6 righty struggled with his control.

Schlittler allowed 3.82 walks per 9 innings in 14 starts for the Pinstripes in the regular season, putting him in the 18th percentile among qualified pitchers.

The 24-year-old’s ability to rev up the velocity and get strikeouts will help him wriggle out of jams, but it’s unfair to expect that Schlittler will just carry his form from last Thursday into Game 4 against the Jays.

The good news for Schlittler is that he doesn’t have to be flawless.

The Blue Jays are going with a bullpen game Thursday, with Louis Varland getting things started less than 24 hours after Judge launched one of his heaters off the left-field foul pole.

Varland threw 20 pitches on Tuesday, so it’s unlikely he goes more than an inning or two before handing the baton to another reliever, most likely Eric Lauer.

Lauer made 15 starts for the Jays this season, so he’s the logical candidate to handle the “bulk” of the early innings after Varland.

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That plan will unsettle fans up north, as Lauer’s statistical profile is pretty ordinary.

Even if Schlittler is proven to be a mere mortal, the Yankees should have the decided edge with the Jays leaning into a bullpen that has surrendered 12 runs in 12 1/3 innings in this series.

The Yankees are deserving favorites in Game 4, but the -172 price seems a bit too steep.

Ahead of Game 3, we outlined the logic of backing the Pinstripes in the futures market, and that’s still my preferred way of betting on the Yankees, should that be how you want to spend your Wednesday evening.

Instead of laying the wood with the Yanks, I’ll target the Over 8.5 runs, which seems too low for a showdown between these two in-form offenses.

The Play: Over 8.5 (-105, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.