Aces vs. Mercury odds, picks, bets

Game 1 of the WNBA Finals lived up to the pre-series hype, coming down to the final possession that also decided the betting outcome.

The Las Vegas Aces hung on to defeat the Phoenix Mercury, 89-86, as the point spread toggled between three and 3.5 points. 

The Aces are again three-point home favorites in Game 2 with the total now 164.5, after the series opener flew over 161. This is the first best-of-seven series in league history. 

I do think the Mercury are fairly likely to bounce back and play with more desperation. I backed the underdog in Game 1 and lean that way for this rematch.

However, given the Aces did not play that well and trailed nearly the entire way, I do think there is a decent chance they regress to the mean and play more efficiently and consistently. Thus, I am focusing on prop bets. 

A’ja Wilson is the league’s best player and remains a force on both ends.

Las Vegas understandably runs plenty of offensive sets through her and she almost always delivers. However, the props (25.5 points and 11.5 rebounds) skew high because of that usage and execution.

Starting center Natasha Mack is a capable defender standing 6-foot-4 and her teammates do a solid job of collapsing and making things difficult for Wilson, which is all you can ask.

The four-time MVP Wilson has faced the Mercury four times this season, including the Finals. She only surpassed 25.5 points in the two games she had double-digit free throw attempts and went under when she spent less time at the charity stripe.

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Another key variable for the Mercury and this prop is limiting Wilson’s shot attempts with help defense. In each of the past three meetings against Phoenix, Wilson attempted 16 shots. The Mercury will likely continue to prioritize forcing her to pass out of double teams, which also keeps them from fouling her.

I have a 68-53-2 ATS record in this Post sports section and my next play is Wilson Under 25.5 points (-110, DraftKings) in Game 2. 

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.