Odds, picks, best bet for Saturday’s ACC headliner

It’s been a very long time since Florida State and Miami met with anything of note on the line.

A couple of decades ago, any showdown between the Seminoles and Hurricanes felt like it had national championship implications, but the two programs zigged and zagged in the time since, allowing the SEC and Big Ten to become the most powerful entities in college football.

But this season has seen a slight shift, with Miami currently ranked No. 3 in the latest AP Top 25 poll, while Florida State is ranked 18th after a disappointing loss to Virginia last weekend.

Interestingly, Florida State’s loss to Virginia added even more weight to this game. Had the Seminoles won that game, this wouldn’t have been a must-win for either side, but it certainly is for the home team now that they’re 0-1 in ACC play.

Miami vs. Florida State odds, prediction

I count myself among the skeptics when it comes to Miami’s national title hopes. The Hurricanes have been terrific in just about every area of the game through the first five weeks of the season, but head coach Mario Cristobal has made a habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory when it matters most.

We saw that last year when Miami wilted down the stretch after a 9-0 start.

That said, Cristobal’s coaching isn’t a massive concern just yet. That time will come, but for this week we’ll keep it between the lines.

Florida State has proven playmakers in the secondary that will scare Miami backers given Carson Beck’s propensity to turn the ball over last year, but it’s in the trenches where this game will be won.

Miami’s has been dominant in the trenches on both sides of the ball, which should make life easier on Beck to make the right decision, thus muting Florida State’s strength in the secondary.

And Miami’s defensive front has been lights out against the run, holding Alabama, South Florida and Notre Dame to just 2.8 yards per carry.

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That means the pressure will be on Tommy Castellanos to keep pace with Beck, which is not the direction Florida State wants this game to head.

In the big picture, I think Miami is overrated. They’re not on par with the juggernauts from the Big Ten and SEC. The good news is that they don’t have to face those teams on Saturday night.

With an edge at quarterback and in the trenches, I feel OK with laying the points on the road in this tilt.

The Play: Miami -4.5 (-110, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.