Odds, pick, best bet for Saturday’s SEC showdown
The writing was on the wall for Billy Napier at this time last year. His Florida Gators were 3-3 through their first six games, and they had a brutal schedule to close out the college football season.
Napier looked like an odds-on favorite to lose his job, but something clicked with his team from that point forward.
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Florida finished the season on a 5-2 kick, pulling off upsets against LSU and Ole Miss before trouncing Florida State to close out the regular season.
A blowout win over Tulane in the Gasparilla Bowl got hopes up that Napier and the Gators had big things in store for them in 2025.
Not so fast.
The Gators have lost three of their first four games in 2025, including to South Florida, and now face a daunting stretch of games against Texas, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, and Georgia.
Napier’s seat is white hot, and it’s not out of the question that he needs a win against the Longhorns to stay on the ride.
Florida is a 6.5-point underdog at home on Saturday.
Texas vs. Florida odds, prediction
The good news for Napier and the Gators is that Texas, like Florida, has yet to live up to the hype. The Longhorns were the preseason favorites to win the SEC, and some sportsbooks had them as the No. 1 team in the market to win the national championship.
All of that confidence stemmed from the presumed leap of quarterback Arch Manning, who was one of the favorites to win the Heisman across the market before the season started.
Betting on College Football?
The Manning-led attack has been disappointing, which shouldn’t be that surprising given his lack of experience.
He has done a decent job of rolling against lightweight teams, but he really didn’t have any impact in Week 1 against Ohio State.
Florida isn’t on the same planet as the Buckeyes right now, but the defense is formidable and should offer Manning the toughest test he’s had in weeks.
Texas’ defense grades out as one of the best units in the country, and should have plenty of success against a struggling Florida offense with DJ Lagway all out of sorts under center.
The Florida offense doesn’t give you much room for belief, but the same can be said of Texas, and the Longhorns are the road favorites on Saturday.
This game has all the makings of a slugfest, with Florida desperate to change the narrative and save their coach’s job with an upset.
Sound familiar?
The Play: Florida (+215 at FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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