Best bet, odds, picks for Thursday’s college football game

Army and East Carolina will carry the torch for college football Thursday night.

It’s been a bizarre start to the season for the Black Knights, who bookended an upset of Kansas State with losses against Tarleton State and North Texas.

You normally can set your clock to Army football, but this year it seems like the opposite is true.

The Black Knights travel to Dowdy–Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, N.C., as four-point underdogs in Thursday’s lone college game.

Army vs. ECU odds, prediction

There’s nothing surprising about how Army wants to play.

The Black Knights lead the country in rush attempts per game and rank second (behind Navy) in rushing play percentage. Army has run the ball on 84.1 percent of its plays this season.

It’s never as simple as just looking up an opponent’s rush defense when they take on one of the Service Academies, but it is a good starting place to build your handicap.

East Carolina grades out well in that regard, allowing just 87 yards per game on the ground. The Pirates’ defense also ranks 39th in the country in yards per rushing attempt (3.9).

Stopping Army’s triple-option differs from containing a more traditional rushing attack, but those numbers do bode well for the Pirates.

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Betting on College Football?

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Things will look quite different when East Carolina has the ball.

The Pirates are a pass-heavy offense, which plays into the strength of the Army defense, as the Black Knights have struggled to stop the run but have had more success defending the pass.

The numbers are closer to good than great, but Army’s pass defense should be able to do a job at containing Katin Houser and the ECU offense.

The Over/Under for Thursday’s contest is set at 53.5 points, which does seem a couple of ticks too high.

Army’s played in some high-event games to start the season, but its defense should match up well with an offense that wants to beat you through the air.

Similarly, Army’s bread-and-butter on offense plays into the strength of ECU’s defense.

And finally, this is a game with a triple-option attack. That means the clock will be moving, which is always a plus for those holding a ticket on the Under.

The Play: Under 53.5 points (-110, BetMGM)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.