Odds, picks, best bet for Bethpage Black
The 2025 Ryder Cup finally gets underway on Friday morning at Bethpage Black on my home turf of Long Island, New York.
As a proud Long Islander, I can tell you that the natives are restless, but that’s mostly because of the traffic concerns.
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As for the golf, it’s been a while since a Ryder Cup matched the pre-tournament buzz.
The last five iterations have featured an average winning margin of 6.6 points.
The two tightest editions in that span were 2014 and 2023, which went to Europe by five points, while Team USA scored the biggest blowout in that stretch with a 10-point victory in 2021 at Whistling Straits.
It’s also been quite some time since the away team has lifted the trophy, with Europe being the last to do so at Medinah in 2012.
Those trends suggest that you keep things chalky at Bethpage this weekend: Back Team USA to cruise, and toss in a bet on Scottie Scheffler to score the most points in the tournament. Nothing too complicated.
If that’s your style, all power to you, but there are some reasons to believe that the 2025 Ryder Cup will carry more chaos than what we’ve seen in recent years.
It starts with the main character this weekend: The Black Course.
Noted as one of the toughest tracks on the planet, Bethpage Black is a par-71 that measures just under 7,400 yards. It’s a monster, and it will make some of these all-world players look more like your buddy from Seaford.
You may think that the Americans have a distinct advantage over the Europeans on a course with this kind of setup, but that is underestimating what the Black Course can do to you. Just because you can drive it a mile doesn’t mean you’ll escape unscathed.
So while it may be tempting to just don your Stars & Stripes and lump a bet on Team USA to lift the trophy at -155, I’d suggest taking a step back and asking yourself which side benefits from a more chaotic tournament? In my mind, the answer is clear.
Best bet to win: Team Europe +175 (bet365)
As noted above, I believe Bethpage Black will serve as a field-leveler rather than an advantage for the home team. But that’s not the only reason I like a bet on the underdog this weekend.
While Scottie Scheffler is inarguably the best player in this event, the depth of Team Europe can’t be overlooked.
Rory McIlroy is the headliner, but he’s backed up by Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, Ludvig Aberg, and Viktor Hovland, not to mention a couple of old hands in Justin Rose and Shane Lowry.
The supporting cast for Team USA has more question marks than that.
It shouldn’t be surprising that the sportsbooks on this side of the pond are getting flooded with Team USA money, so you can wait and see if you can grab an even better price on Europe as we get closer to the first tee shot.
Team Europe Most Points: Shane Lowry 22/1 (DraftKings)
Things can go sideways quickly for Shane Lowry, but the best moments of his career have come under the bright lights on tough courses. A strong start on Day 1 (most likely with Justin Rose) will earn the trust of Luke Donald and put the Irishman in position to be a difference-maker for Europe.
Team USA Most Points: Cameron Young 12/1 (BetMGM)
Given his current form and his experience on this course, it won’t take much for New York’s own Cam Young to earn the trust of Keegan Bradley, which should allow him the opportunity to rack up enough points to contend in this market.
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Most points overall: Viktor Hovland (22/1, FanDuel)
It feels like Viktor Hovland is flying under the radar this weekend, but that’s good news for us. The Norwegian is in fine form, and most importantly, he’s established himself as a rock for Team Europe in this competition. Hovland has played in 10 of 10 possible matches in the last two Ryder Cups.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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