How Zohran Mamdani is dividing Democrats and paving the way for GOP victories

Zohran Mamdani is unraveling New York’s Democratic Party, and Republicans are ready to pick up the pieces.

The state’s three most important leaders — Gov. Kathy Hochul, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie and Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins — have now all endorsed the 33-year-old leftist for NYC mayor.

They’re opening the floodgates for Mamdani’s extreme agenda to take root across the state.

But standing in the way is Jay Jacobs, the party’s state chair and a sworn enemy of its socialist wing.

He bluntly rebuffed the prospect of an endorsement: “I reject the platform of the so-called ‘Democratic Socialists of America’ and do not believe that it represents the principles, values or policies of the Democratic Party.”

Nassau County Reps. Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen likewise refused to back Mamdani.

Instead, they doubled down on their concerns about his radical views on public safety and Israel.

These regular Democrats recognize the danger that the young radical poses to the wider party: Their reelection bids could be early casualties of a Mamdani mayoralty.

Both hail from purple districts that voted in Republicans in 2022, when then-Rep. Lee Zeldin ran an impressively close race against Hochul on a tough-on-crime message.

In total, Democrats lost four New York House seats in 2022, three of which they regained last year.

The GOP’s pitch to voters writes itself: Don’t want socialist extremism to spread near you? Vote Republican.

For all of his charm, Mamdani is an extremely polarizing figure.

If his extreme criminal-justice agenda cuts down a police headcount hovering near three-decade lows, New Yorkers are going to feel increasingly unsafe as response times climb.

As they will if social workers replace cops and fail to deal adequately with violent mentally ill and homeless people.

Zeldin showed that’s a recipe for Republicans to flip swing House seats yet again.

A Manhattan Institute poll conducted in January showed 70% of New York City voters want more police officers; 81% want more on subways. 

Don’t expect those numbers to decrease in swing districts like Suozzi’s and Gillen’s.

Worse, if civil unrest occurs on Mamdani’s watch, how will he restore order — if he even tries?

He’s vowed to disband the NYPD’s Strategic Response Group, the unit responsible for responding to large protests and mass shootings like the July atrocity at 345 Park Ave.

Scrapping the SRG would give President Donald Trump a reason to send troops to New York to quell disturbances — and allow Republicans to take credit for bringing order to chaos, as happened in Washington, DC.

Democrats’ embrace of Mamdani will also drive moderate and center-left Jews who fear and detest his antisemitism to vote for the GOP next year, including for Hochul’s likely general-election challenger, Rep. Elise Stefanik.

They have nowhere else to go.

(Remember, Nassau County is about twice as Jewish as the Big Apple, which itself is home to more Jews than any other city in the world.)

How can Jews stand behind a party that’s championing someone who’s repeatedly refused to condemn globalizing the intifada?

Is it now suddenly OK for Democrats to back arresting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu?

Little wonder pro-Israel House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are still holding out on their endorsements.

Fearing for their safety, New Yorkers might move to other states, accelerating the outmigration that already threatens to cost New York up to three House seats in the 2030 redistricting.

They’ll join others who’ll avoid the state in the face of new taxes on the wealthy.

Heastie said last week that he’d push to raise taxes for Mamdani’s agenda, calling millionaire taxes “popular.”

By Democrats’ new logic, they expect to win elections by raising taxes.

As fiscal expert E.J. McMahon and the Citizens Budget Commission have shown, however, an increasing share of the nation’s millionaires have already made their home outside of New York.

With a projected $34.3 billion state budget gap through 2029, Albany is also going to feel the pinch when New York’s biggest taxpayers bail.

Jacobs, Suozzi and Gillen prove that it wasn’t necessary for the state’s top brass to back Mamdani after he won a closed primary with about 32% voter turnout.

After all, he didn’t endorse Joe Biden or Kamala Harris last year.

State Dems could have reciprocated the cold shoulder.

Instead, Mamdani’s record will be tied to his endorsers.

Hochul, in particular, has ceded her chance to be the adult in the room with Mamdani.

She could’ve ensured that the city is still governed responsibly and its residents are safe.

If Mamdani wins in November, there’s little to prevent him from making the state a bellwether for democratic socialism nationwide.

But Americans as a whole aren’t going to embrace his radical agenda like New York City and its leaders have.

They’ll make it known at the ballot box.

John Ketcham is director of cities and a legal policy fellow at the Manhattan Institute. All views expressed are those of the author and not the Manhattan Institute.