College football Week 4 predictions: Picks against the spread

Even in the age of the expanded playoff, college football’s postseason remains the most exclusive. None of the professional leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, MLS, WNBA) invite fewer than 40 percent of their teams. The NCAA Tournament’s acceptance rate (18.7 percent) is more than double that of the College Football Playoff (8.8), but the true FBS figure is significantly lower.

Only one of the Group of Five’s 67 teams is guaranteed a spot, essentially leaving 68 power-conference teams (and Notre Dame) to fight for the other 11. But even that is misleading, given the stranglehold on the top of the standings by the sport’s elite programs. Though football schools routinely make runs to the Final Four, most basketball-first programs (Maryland, Virginia, Wake Forest, UCLA, Kansas, etc.) have never held any realistic hope of crashing football’s dance.

Until now.

Following last year’s improbable playoff berth under first-year coach Curt Cignetti, No. 19 Indiana (3-0) — which has more losses than any team in FBS history — is looking to make another run, winning its first three games by a combined score of 156-23. No. 9 Illinois (3-0) might be even better positioned, defeating stronger opponents — by a combined score of 135-22 — after completing its first double-digit win season in 23 years.

The long-overlooked programs meet Saturday in Bloomington for the first time they’ve both been ranked since 1950. This season, the Illini (+6.5, FanDuel) will step into the spotlight and take a huge leap toward an unlikely playoff bid, playing for a coach (Bret Bielema) who has covered 19 of his past 25 games as a road dog.

Iowa (-2.5) over RUTGERS

Hawkeyes coach Kirk Ferentz is 4-0 against the Scarlet Knights, winning their two meetings in the past three years by a combined score of 49-10. Rutgers — which is 3-11 as a home dog in Greg Schiano’s second act — will not be able to sustain its newfound offensive fireworks against one of the most dependable defenses in the league.

TCU (-6.5) over Smu

The Horned Frogs will avenge last year’s 66-42 loss, in which the Mustangs scored three non-offensive touchdowns and got another four from since-departed Brashard Smith. Josh Hoover, who threw for 396 yards in that meeting, will torch an SMU defense which has allowed more passing yards per game (357.5) than all but two teams in the nation.

Syracuse (+17.5) over CLEMSON

Dabo Swinney can flash his rings — “If they want me gone, if they are tired of winning, they can send me on the way,” he said this week — but his roster cannot hide behind the coach’s achievements. At 1-2 for the first time in 11 years, Clemson needs to show a pulse before it can be trusted again.

UTAH (-2.5) over Texas Tech

The Red Raiders won the offseason and have not yet allowed a point before the fourth quarter in three blowout wins, but they are unprepared for a battle of perhaps the Big 12’s best teams. The Utes are allowing an average of fewer than nine points per game and feature a dual threat, Devon Dampier, completing 74 percent of his passes, with no turnovers.

OREGON (-35.5) over Oregon State

The Ducks won’t take their foot off the gas, as they did in the final quarter of their blowout win at Northwestern. Oregon has embarrassed its rival by 35 points or more in half of its past six wins in the series.

NOTRE DAME (-24.5) over Purdue

The Irish must run the table to have a chance of returning to the playoff. The victim of last season’s 66-7 beatdown is a good place to start.

OKLAHOMA (-6.5) over Auburn

This isn’t the Jackson Arnold revenge game. This is a Heisman candidate (John Mateer) improving his stock, as the nation’s fourth-ranked defense gives Auburn’s new quarterback — who averaged 94 yards passing in four games against ranked teams last season — another rough night in Norman. The Sooners are 9-3 against the spread as home favorites in the past three seasons.

Tulane (+11.5) over OLE MISS

Rebels back Kewan Lacy will carve up the Wave, but former BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff — averaging 96 yards and two touchdowns per game on the ground — should have success following the blueprint of Arkansas’ Taylen Green, who ran for 115 yards while leading the Hogs to 35 points in a near-upset in Oxford.

Michigan (-2.5) over NEBRASKA

The season would be far more interesting if the Cornhuskers returned to national relevance, but Memorial Stadium — where Nebraska is 2-4 in its past six Big Ten games, including a win over Rutgers — can’t help a team that hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent in nine years. Prized Michigan freshman QB Bryce Underwood will be better off for the struggles he endured at Oklahoma.

South Carolina (+10.5) over MISSOURI

If you don’t have a deadline to hit at your newspaper, I’d suggest waiting until learning the status of LaNorris Sellers (concussion).

MIAMI (-7.5) over Florida

DJ Lagway could be in for another long day, with little time to operate against a dominant Hurricanes front. Miami might be the best team in the nation, with the balance and ceiling to bludgeon the Gators for a second straight season.

BAYLOR (-2.5) over Arizona State

Sam Leavitt is ranked 85th in the nation in QBR — Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson is 24th — after throwing for 82 yards and two interceptions in his only road game this season. Football is much harder without Cam Skattebo to lean on.

Sam Houston (+39.5) over TEXAS

There is no reason to give the Longhorns a look until Arch Manning — who completed 11 of 25 passes for 114 yards with a touchdown and an interception — shows he’s worthy of a scholarship.

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Betting on College Football?

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USC (-18.5) over Michigan State

As if the Trojans — averaging 55 points per game and 7 yards per carry — didn’t hold enough of an edge over the Spartans, who most recently surrendered three touchdowns against Youngstown State. Kickoff for this absurd intraconference affair will come around 11 p.m. local time in Michigan. The Trojans have covered six straight games as a home favorite.

BEST BETS: Iowa, Oklahoma, Tulane

SEASON: 18-27 (3-6)

2014-24 RECORD: 1,392-1,309-31

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Howie Kussoy has long been the New York Post’s main handicapper in college basketball (since 2011) and college football (since 2013).