Carlos Alcaraz vs. Reilly Opelka odds, picks, and prediction

Sometimes the tennis gods throw a wrench into the system.

While the entire world is expecting Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner to renew acquaintances in the US Open Final in a couple of weeks, the draw made things a little tricky on the top two players in the world.

While Sinner has an easy opening match, he’ll likely get a test in Round 2. Alcaraz, meanwhile, has to deal with Reilly Opelka and his all-world serve in his opening contest on Monday night.

Alcaraz is still a massive favorite against Opelka, but this isn’t the kind of matchup the Spaniard would have been hoping for before the draw.

US Open: Alcaraz vs. Opelka odds, prediction

The tale of the tape here isn’t that complicated. Alcaraz is a masterful all-around player and the best defensive player on the planet. Opelka’s serve, when it’s clicking, levels the playing field against most opponents.

Opelka’s serve will keep Alcaraz honest, but the Spaniard will trust that he’ll be able to find his moments, even when the American has the ball first.

When Alcaraz is serving, it’s basically just hope and pray time for the 6-foot-11 Opelka. It’s unlikely that he’ll create many break opportunities without the World No. 2 imploding, so he’ll need to make the most of any looks he gets.

For Opelka to have a hope of making this match competitive, he’ll need to take care of business on his serve, and I’d expect him to be able to do that in a set or two, getting at least one to a tiebreak.

That puts the Over 34.5 games well within range for a bet.

The Play: Over 34.5 Games (bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.