Toledo, San Jose State, UTEP

The most celebrated feature of the expanded College Football Playoff was that one of the 12 bids had to go to a team from the Group of 5.

Last year’s representative, Boise State, was a shoo-in and was deemed impressive enough to land a No. 3 seed and a first-round bye in the 12-team tournament. 

The Broncos, led by first-round pick Ashton Jeanty, ended the season 12-2 record, with their only defeats coming against Oregon and Penn State. Boise State went 7-0 in the Mountain West and handled UNLV, 21-7, in the conference championship.

There was no controversy over the decision to include Boise State in the tournament, and oddsmakers are projecting a similar situation in 2025. 

Despite losing Jeanty to the NFL Draft, the Broncos are expected to be the class of not only the Mountain West but the Group of 5, once again this season.

Boise State is an odds-on favorite to win their conference (-155) at bet365, and they are +190 to make it back to the Playoff. 

The only other G5 team with single-digit odds at bet365 is Tulane at +750. 

But if there is one thing that 2024 and this new era of college football taught us, it’s that we should expect the unexpected.

With that in mind, here are a couple of long shots from the Group of 5 that are worth considering to gatecrash the College Football Playoff this season:

Toledo (20/1, BetMGM)

It would be quite something to see a MAC team make it to the College Football Playoff, but there’s a chance that Toledo makes it happen.

The Rockets are the favorite to take the MAC at +250, and ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the creator of SP+, gives the Rockets an even better chance at 25 percent. 

Connelly also gives Toledo an 11 percent chance of winning 11+ games in 2025, which would put them on the radar for a spot in the Playoff, so long as some of the other heavyweights in the Group of 5 slip up.

San Jose State (50/1, FanDuel)

They only went 7-6, but San Jose State was one of the pleasant surprises in the Group of 5 in Ken Niumatalolo’s first season in charge.

A triple-option aficionado from his time in charge at Navy, Niumatalolo did a complete 360 with the Spartans, running an up-tempo offense with quarterback Walker Eget. 

It went surprisingly well, and the Spartans finished with a winning record despite coming into 2024 with a roster that ranked near the bottom in returning production.

If Niumatalolo and Eget were able to get San Jose State to a bowl game in a “reset” year, imagine what they can do in Year 2. 

It also doesn’t hurt that the Spartans avoid Boise State and UNLV in the regular season.

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UTEP (300/1, DraftKings)

We’ll throw one true dart with UTEP, which is coming off an abysmal 3-9 season in 2024 and would be just happy with getting to a bowl game.

But, if you squint really hard, you can see a path to much more for the Miners in 2025.
As poor as UTEP was in 2024, they were also very unfortunate, ranking 101st in turnover luck, 105th in close-game fortune, and 124th in lineup stability, per Connelly.

No team can overcome that, and perhaps playing .500 football in their last six games was a sign of better things to come from the Miners in 2025.

But the most important development with UTEP is the arrival of former five-star recruit Malachi Nelson, who previously played for USC and Boise State.

Nelson would need to find his ceiling in a hurry, but he could very well be the most talented player in the Group of 5.

A ton would need to go right for the Miners to just compete for the C-USA title, but considering how much went wrong for them in 2024, maybe they’re due for something special.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.