Why the betting market is underrating Alabama in 2025

You used to be able to set your watch to Alabama Football.

Under Nick Saban, the pattern generally followed the same script. The Crimson Tide would be one of the favorites to win the National Championship, they’d often be odds-on to win the SEC, and their Over/Under would be the highest in the country.

For most of Saban’s tenure, Alabama would meet or surpass the lofty expectations that were set ahead of each campaign. 

The Crimson Tide won six national championships and nine SEC titles during Saban’s 17-year tenure, and they only lost more than one conference game in four of those seasons.

The stability under Saban made Alabama one of the safest teams to project in all of college football. The range of outcomes was minimal.

Those days appear to be over, and not just because Saban is no longer in charge of the Crimson Tide, but also because the entire landscape of college football has changed.

Realignment, the expanded Playoff, and the outlandish growth of NIL have leveled the playing field at the top of college football, making it hard for any program to maintain its spot at the top of the food chain.

Alabama, in its second year under head coach Kalen DeBoer, is the seventh-favorite (12/1) to win the National Championship at BetMGM, putting the Tide behind Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, Penn State, and Clemson.

Alabama was 15/1 to win the national championship ahead of 2024, which means this will likely be the first time in 15 years that the Crimson Tide enters back-to-back seasons with outright odds in the double digits.

The betting market was largely proven right last year when it came to Alabama. DeBoer’s first season got off to a flawless start, culminating in a 41-34 win over Georgia to get to 4-0, but the following week saw the Crimson Tide lose to Vanderbilt for the first time since 1984. 

That result set the tone for the rest of an inconsistent season for the Crimson Tide, one that ended with a loss to Michigan in the ReliaQuest Bowl. 

Given how his first season in Tuscaloosa went, it’s no surprise that everybody seems to be lukewarm on ‘Bama in DeBoer’s second season.

The AP preseason poll won’t come out for a few weeks, but Alabama will likely be sitting right around fifth behind Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, and perhaps Penn State and/or Oregon. 

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That would match the betting market and public sentiment, as the college football world needs to be convinced that DeBoer is the man for this job.

While the winds of uncertainty that are swirling around DeBoer may seem like reasons for bettors to abandon ship, they’re also presenting a rare opportunity to buy low on ‘Bama in a season that sets up quite well for them on paper.

Aside from DeBoer, the biggest question mark for Alabama will be under center, where dual-threat QB Ty Simpson is the projected starter. 

Simpson does not have much experience running the show at Alabama, but he’s walking into a terrific situation. The offensive line should be among the best in the country, he’s got an experienced backfield to ride with him, and his wide receiver corps could be historically good, with Ryan Williams leading the way. 

The defense also grades out splendidly, which should mean that Simpson – or whoever wins the job – won’t need to win many games on his own. 

If you strip out the noise and size up Alabama based on the talent on its roster, you could argue that this is one of the two best teams in the country right now. In fact, Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings have the Tide ranked second behind Ohio State.

Connelly’s numbers back up the notion that there are just two (albeit important ones) questions for the Tide to answer going into the season.

For any other team, this kind of setup would lead to a bullish market. 

But for Alabama, two question marks are two more than we’re used to, and that has caused the market to sour on the Tide.

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.