Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier pick, odds, best bets

It’s the swan song for Dustin Poirier’s career as he prepares to retire at home for UFC 318.

It will be a spectacle as the Louisianan makes the walk to the octagon one last time alongside rapper Lil Wayne in New Orleans.

That’s the main event Saturday night, but there are an insane 14 fights on this card.

The opening bell is at 6:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, and the main card is available on pay-per-view, starting at 10.

Projections from sportsbooks reveal an equitable division between anticipated decisions and finishes, with seven bouts forecasted to conclude prior to the final bell.

That’s really carried by some mismatches during the prelims, with multiple fights lined up as clear squash spots.

Six of the first seven fights have lines -300 or greater.

Here are my predictions for the full UFC 318 card:

UFC 318 predictions

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier

It’s a trilogy fight in the lightweight division, and Poirier won the first two fights but still enters Saturday as an underdog at home.

Holloway debuted in the UFC against Poirier in 2012, losing by triangle choke, and then was defeated via decision seven years later when fighting for the interim lightweight championship.

Poirier being 2-0 and then following that up as an underdog is surprising.

Digging into the archives, a piece I wrote in 2021 for Action Network shows a study that I did of all trilogy fights (the third fight in a series between two fighters) to that point.

Underdogs rarely won the third fight, with a 4-17 record at the time (a 19 percent win rate).

Since then, six trilogy fights have happened. Underdogs have rebounded a bit, going 3-3 (now 7-20 overall), although four straight and five of six have gone to decision.

Decisions in the third bout have moved to 51.85 percent in trilogy fights.

Given that both of these fighters are past their prime, it’s a good spot to target the decision market, considering the familiarity and ages of these two.

Don’t expect a finish, and if I had to pick a side, I’d absolutely choose Holloway.

Pick: Holloway by decision (+140, Fanatics)

Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov

If you built a fighter whose job it was solely to frustrate you, you’d create Costa. He’s built like a Greek god, had excellent striking at his peak, and has a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.

The problem with Costa is his lack of killer instinct; oftentimes, he looks as if he’s trying to collect a paycheck rather than get knockout wins.

At this point, Costa looks at his opponents, smiles/sticks his tongue out at them, throws a low left jab to the body, and does not do much else. That’s obviously not a winning formula.

Kopylov is not without his problems, either. His lack of defense can be startling, and any time he has been given a step up in competition, he’s failed.

But Costa is not a good bet, and I have serious reservations about backing him to win any fights at all.

Pick: Fight doesn’t go the distance (+185, Bet365)

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UFC 318 full card picks for main card and prelims

Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier: Holloway by decision (+140, Fanatics)

Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov: Fight doesn’t go the distance (+185, Bet365)

Kevin Holland vs. Daniel Rodriguez: Fight goes the distance (+165, BetRivers); Rodriguez by decision (+880, Fanatics).

Dan Ige vs. Patricio Pitbull: Pitbull by decision (+300, DraftKings).

Michael Johnson vs. Daniel Zellhuber: Johnson moneyline (+425, FanDuel).

Kyler Phillips vs. Vinicius Oliveira: Under 2.5 rounds (+175, DraftKings).

Marvin Vettori vs. Brendan Allen: Vettori ATS +3.5 (-170, BetMGM).

Francisco Prado vs. Nikolay Veretennikov: Veretennikov wins in over 1.5 rounds (+180, DraftKings).

Ateba Gautier vs. Robert Valentin: Fight goes the distance (+520, FanDuel).

Adam Fugitt vs. Islam Dulatov: Fight starts round 2 (-118, FanDuel).

Jimmy Crute vs. Marcin Prachnio: Crute by KO/TKO (+400, FanDuel).

Ryan Spann vs. Lukasz Brzeski: Brzeski moneyline (+186, Bet365).

Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey: Over 1.5 rounds (+195, DraftKings).

Carli Judice vs. Nicolle Caliari: Fight goes the distance (-200, BetRivers).

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.