Taylor Fritz vs. Karen Khachanov prediction: Wimbledon pick, best bet

Taylor Fritz is one win away from his first trip to the Wimbledon semifinals, again.

Fritz, who has been to the quarterfinals at the All England Club on two other occasions, is a -330 favorite to beat World No. 20 Karen Khachanov in the first match on Tuesday morning.

Fritz has caught a couple of breaks to get to this point, but he’s had a tricky path that’s included a couple of powerful servers and the fiery Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina. 

The American is a deserving favorite over Khachanov, but overlook the Russian at your own risk.

Taylor Fritz vs. Karen Khachanov prediction

According to the ATP Tour’s metrics, Fritz boasts the fourth-best serve in the sport, and he owns the second-best percentage of service games won behind Jannik Sinner. 

The 27-year-old has worked on getting the rest of his game to a point where he’s not too reliant on his serve, but it’s still pretty clear how the California native wants this match to go. He wants to hit through Khachanov and then steal a break at some point.

That tactic can work against almost anybody on the ATP Tour if Fritz is at his best, but if he’s off, it becomes a little dubious versus a player with Khachanov’s defensive skills.

Khachanov grades out as the 18th-best return player on the ATP, and he has broken his opponent’s serve in 22.8 percent of games over the last 52 weeks, which is also the 18th-best mark on the circuit in that span.

Although his serve pales in comparison to Fritz’s, Khachanov still ranks inside the top 30, so it’s not like he’s an easy player to break.

Wimbledon: Fritz vs. Khachanov pick

Khachanov’s real advantage in this match is his fitness.

Khachanov is a threat to go deep in any Grand Slam because he is a relentless competitor who seemingly can maintain his level through five sets. His career is littered with thrilling matches that went the distance.

If he can stay with Fritz in the early going and not get overwhelmed by the American’s serve, he has every chance of getting to another semifinal at a Grand Slam.

The Play: Khachanov +260 (bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.