2025-26 Vezina Trophy odds: Why now is the time to strike on Ilya Sorokin

We’re just past the halfway mark in the 2025-26 NHL season and there’s heavy chalk in all of the player awards markets, except for the Vezina. 

The Jets’ sudden plummet from perennial league royalty to 11 straight losses has opened the race after Connor Hellebuyck’s back-to-back claim of the hardware.

Winnipeg won the Presidents’ Trophy as the best regular-season team last year, so each season’s goalie landscape offers a unique rubric tailored to the narratives of that season.

The Avalanche have separated themselves from the pack as the league’s most consistent club and are the current favorites to hoist Lord Stanley, but Scott Wedgewood owns the third-shortest odds at FanDuel.

Colorado’s veteran journeyman leads the game in save percentage and goals against average, though Washington’s Logan Thompson and the Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin jockey for the favorite with +150 and +180 odds, respectively, at FanDuel. 

It’s a rare privilege when goaltending isn’t the crux of your success, but the Avalanche’s quick-transition, eruptive offense manned by Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar takes pressure off the cage. 

In the cases of Thompson and Sorokin, their play has been more contingent on where the Capitals and Islanders stand as playoff contenders in a congested heat.

Thompson and Sorokin lead all goaltenders in MoneyPuck’s goals saved above expected at 18 and 17, respectively. Hellebuyck finished as the runaway No. 1 in this category in all three of his Vezina-winning years. 

Between the two, I like the slight value in making a Sorokin investment sooner than later.

The 30-year-old Russian has been touted as elite since he entered the league in 2021; he finished as a finalist for the award in 2023. Sorokin saw a dip in his numbers thereafter while facing high shot volumes behind defensive liabilities. That’s in addition to back surgery recovery ahead of last season. 

During those troubles, Sorokin was caught playing shooters too aggressively on east-west plays and rush chances. His power sliding was explosive, yet inefficient, leading to later recoveries and acrobatic kick saves on low shots. 

Since the Islanders fired goaltending coach Piero Greco in October and replaced him with Sergei Naumovs, who coached Sorokin in the KHL, his technical improvements are clear.

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Sorokin now leads the NHL in both rebounds and puck freezes per save, according to MoneyPuck.

We’re seeing quieter movements in his edge work, deeper positioning and more patience. Sorokin is puck tracking through layers of traffic rather than reacting after release, snatching cleaner catches and steering rebounds to the corners. It’s all led to the highest high-danger shot save percentage among goaltenders who have played at least 25 games. 

We can say that the arrival of Matthew Schaefer’s defensive brilliance has aided Sorokin, and that may be true. He’s still compensating for the worst power play in hockey and bottom-feeding 5-on-5 metrics with the second-highest Wins Above Replacement. 

Add in another league-leading category with five shutouts after Thursday’s 1-0 road blanking of Edmonton and it’s tough to find a better profile than Sorokin’s down the remaining stretch.

PLAY: Ilya Sorokin to win Vezina (+180, FanDuel)

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Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.