The Islanders’ alarming advanced stats, explained
EDMONTON, Alberta — The Islanders’ 5-4 loss to the Jets on Tuesday night was only the second time since Nov. 8 they’ve given up five or more goals in a game, but if you are tracking the advanced stats closely, maybe it didn’t come as a huge surprise.
Although the Islanders have flourished this season, taking a 25-16-5 record into Northern Alberta for Thursday night’s match against the Oilers, the numbers haven’t quite followed them.
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By Evolving Hockey’s measure of expected-goals percentage at five-on-five, the Islanders rank 28th in the league at just 46.25 percent. They’re not much better in Corsi: 26th overall at 47.73 percent. Natural Stat Trick has them ranked 30th in high-danger-chance percentage at an abysmal 43.54 and 30th in scoring-chance percentage at 46.17, both at five-on-five.
To sum it up, the numbers are saying the Islanders are overperforming in a big way on both ends of the ice. Whether or not you should trust those numbers and start fearing the season is hanging by a thread is a more complicated question.
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