2026 Sony Open odds, picks: Three long shots to back at Waialae Country Club

And just like that, the 2026 PGA Tour Season has arrived.

The Sony Open, the first full-field event of the campaign, tees off on Thursday afternoon at Waialae Country Club in East Honolulu.

There should be plenty of attention on this tournament given its place on the calendar, but the field is wanting for starpower. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, and Xander Schauffele have all opted to bypass the Aloha State this weekend.

That’s left Russell Henley as a lukewarm 12/1 favorite, with Ben Griffin (17/1), J.J. Spaun (17/1), Hideki Matsuyama (19/1), and Collin Morikawa (21/1) rounding out the top five at bet365 Sportsbook.

If history has taught us anything, you should ignore the top of the board at Waialae. The two most recent winners, Nick Taylor and Grayson Murray, teed off at 100/1 and 400/1, respectively, and only one of the last six trophy-lifters here (Hideki Matusyama, 2022) went off at shorter than 20/1.

Let’s try to start this season off with a bang.

2026 Sony Open picks

Brian Harman (50/1, bet365)

If you’re looking for a horses-for-courses pick at decent odds, Brian Harman is your man.

The Georgia Bulldog has played this event every year since 2012, and he’s missed just two cuts in his 14 trips to Waialae. Harman has never won this tournament, but he finished T4 in 2018 and has five other top-25 finishes.

It’s impossible to tell how a player will carry his form from one season to the next, but it’s hard to feel anything but positive about how the 38-year-old performed in 2025. He racked up a win, two top-five finishes, and only missed four cuts in 24 events.

Harman seemingly always flies under the radar when it comes to the betting market, but it’s still a bit of a head-scratcher to see him at 50/1 against this field on this course.

Nevertheless, we won’t look a gift horse in the mouth.

Brian Harman playing a shot during the second round of the Hero World Challenge 2025. — Brian Harman has plenty of experience at Waialae Country Club. Getty Images

Betting on golf?

Haotong Li (90/1, Caesars)

The Sony Open is the curtain-raiser for the new PGA Tour season, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have any recent form to go off of this week.

One of the hottest players in the field is Haotong Li, who finished T8 at the DP World Tour Championship in November and T10 at the NedBank Golf Challenge in December.

Those were not the only strong showings from Li in 2025, as the native of Hunan, China, also picked up a win and a handful of top-five finishes, including at The Open, around the globe last season.

Li brings some course history with him this weekend, going 1-for-2 in two starts at Waialae with a 12th-place finish in 2022.

Mark Hubbard (175/1, Caesars)

Still searching for his first PGA Tour win, it’s never a terrible idea to play Mark Hubbard at long odds on easier courses.

The 36-year-old racked up nine top-15 finishes over the past two years (including six in 2025), and almost all of them came in this kind of setup. A beatable field on a course built for scoring.

Hubbard hasn’t contended in this event, but he’s got plenty of experience at Waialae and nabbed his best finish with a T21 last year.

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.

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