Is Chinese Pres. Xi Jinping on his way out?

Over the past few months, unprecedented developments point to the potential, and potentially imminent, fall of China’s “Chairman of Everything” Xi Jinping. Chinese Communist Party elders — including Hu Jintao, Xi’s immediate predecessor, whom Xi humiliated at the 20th Party Congress in 2022 — are now running things behind the scenes.

Xi is in poor health and likely to retire at the CCP Plenary Session this August or take a purely ceremonial position.

Xi’s downfall has been rumored before. But never have we seen the recent purges (and mysterious deaths) of dozens of People’s Liberation Army generals loyal to Xi; all replaced by non-Xi loyalists.

Zhang Youxia, with whom Xi had a major falling out after helping Xi secure an unprecedented third five-year term, is now the de facto leader of the PLA.

Also, the “un-naming” of Xi’s father’s mausoleum last month was unprecedented. The mausoleum, which Xi has built to honor his late father, was larger than the mausoleums of either Mao’s or Deng’s.

Meanwhile, Xi’s personal protective detail has recently been halved. What world leader cuts his own security? 

There was no explanation for Xi’s disappearance for almost two weeks in late May and early June while foreign dignitaries were hosted in Beijing by other CCP Leaders. Xi has also been conspicuously missing from the pages of the People’s Daily, the CCP organ that until recently ran fawning front-page stories on Xi daily.

Xi reappeared to host Belarus dictator/Russian puppet Alexander Lukashenko in early June. Xi looked tired, uninterested — even defeated. 

The meeting location was a low-key family-style area of the CCP leaders’ compound (Zhongnanhai) in Beijing that had never before hosted a state visit. Stripped of the pomp and circumstance that used to accompany every Xi gathering, the entire entourage was a mere handful. None of Xi’s translators or senior aides were present.

Compare that to the state visits recently hosted by other CCP leaders; large, extravagant affairs in prestigious CCP conference halls. And following his recent call with President Trump, Chinese state media, including state TV, referred to Xi without any formal title at all. This has never happened before. 

While this was later partially corrected, it is inconceivable that such a glaring oversight was an accident. Recently, professors at some of China’s most prestigious universities have published articles directly criticizing Xi, which was unthinkable previously. 

These are just a few of many unusual signs from Beijing that signal major changes in the CCP power structure. Although not yet certain, it appears that Zhang Youxia and CCP elders have chosen Wang Yang, whom Deng Xiaoping lifted out of obscurity and who served as a successful technocrat until his forced retirement in 2023, to be the next CCP chairman.

He is known as a soft-spoken reformer who supports more free-market policies, more decentralized decision making, and a much less confrontational foreign policy.

To paraphrase Churchill, China is a riddle wrapped in an enigma surrounded by a mystery. So no one can know anything with absolute certainty. But given the disastrous results of Xi’s one-man rule, his ouster would be no surprise.

With over $50 trillion in total debt (national, local and private sector debt is larger than the combined economies of the US and EU), well over 50 million unused (and mostly unusable) apartments due to government policy failures (enough for all of Germany), wealthy Chinese emigrating en masse with their assets and an unemployment rate in depression territory . . . it is not surprising that local riots, factory arsons and anti-government protests have flared all over China.

CCP elders understand China needs a new pragmatic leader to have any chance of escaping the disaster now unfolding.

Such a change will have huge positive implications for the US and our democratic allies if handled correctly. Trump can win the Cold War with China without firing a shot. But Russia, North Korea, and Iran could be devastated by this momentous change.

In fact, Iran’s rapid defeat by Israel and the US has underscored the weakness of Xi’s foreign policy. One CCP elder recently lamented China’s complete isolation on the world stage under Xi, except for a handful of countries that are “good for nothing.”

Vladimir Putin, take note: You lost Syria last year, you are on the brink of losing Iran, and you may soon lose China. Excellent news for all democracies, and especially for Israel, America, and the brave people of Ukraine.

Xi Jinping once again proved the adage that “power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” May his replacement learn from the success of the global West (including Asia’s most successful countries) and lead his nation onto the oftentimes messy but ultimately rewarding path of free markets, free people, real democracy, and the rule of law.

Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong (before the CCP takeover), and the tens of millions of successful Chinese people outside China make it clear that this is the best, and indeed the only sustainable path forward for China.

Gregory W. Slayton is a former senior US diplomat, chairman of Slayton Capital, and author of “Portraits of Ukraine a Nation at War.”