NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions, best bets: Picks for every game

With a nod to Mike Vaccaro’s annual Christmas carols, here’s a little song parody to get the NFL playoffs started, R.E.M. style.

It’s the end of the Jets as we know it

It’s the end of the Jints as we know it

It’s the end of the Fins as we know it

And I … feeeeel … fine

Well, I did say “little.” Surely Vac puts a little more thought into his, but the sentiment holds: Let’s get on with the good football!

SATURDAY

Rams (-10.5) over PANTHERS | Under 46.5

We start the postseason with an 8-9 team playing at home against a 12-5 team.

The NFL is trying to maintain the sanctity and importance of winning the division, but this is something it may have to change eventually. The Rams outscored opponents by 172 points this season, while the Panthers were 69 points to the bad.

Though the location is a bit of a disadvantage for the Rams, it also could serve as a wake-up call. They were arguably the best team in the NFL at 9-2, with Matthew Stafford playing at an MVP level.

A 31-28 loss at Carolina and an injury to Davante Adams fueled a 3-3 finish that helped give the NFC West and the conference’s No. 1 seed to Seattle.

Adams should be back to team up with Puka Nacua, and that earlier loss at this venue surely gave Sean McVay some intel he can use here to produce a much different result.

He and Stafford have won a Super Bowl together, and the Rams have a huge edge in experience over the Panthers, to go along with some recent revenge.

This matchup produced 59 points in the first meeting, but I’ll try the Under as Bryce Young finds his first playoff start to be a completely different animal.

Final score: Rams 27, Panthers 10

BEARS (+1) over Packers | Under 45

The Soldier Field forecast for game time Saturday night calls for 24 degrees with a RealFeel of 3, a little snow and 20 mph winds gusting to 33. Perfect conditions for the NFL’s oldest rivalry.

We’ll start with the Under, with the weather combining with the Bears’ turnover-happy defense, the propensity of both coaches to go for it on fourth down and fail, and difficulties in the kicking game.

The side is a lot harder to choose.

Each team won its home game when the teams met twice in three weeks in December. The Packers lost their final four games, with Jordan Love getting hurt and leaving with a 22-16 OT loss at Chicago in Week 16.

Love and Josh Jacobs are off the injury list, and Zach Tom should be back on the offensive line, making this the healthiest the Packers have been in quite a while.

The difference here could be turnovers. The Bears lead the NFL at plus-22 (33 takeaways, 11 giveaways). The Packers are plus-1 (14, 13). One of these could be all it takes.

Final score: Bears 23, Packers 20

SUNDAY

Bills (-1) over JAGUARS | Over 51.5

This decision boils down to your feelings about Josh Allen. The Bills had their share of problems this season, and that allowed the Patriots to capture the AFC East and sent Buffalo on the road.

The Jaguars certainly are not an easy obstacle. But if you believe Allen is eventually going to take the Bills to a Super Bowl, this 2025 bracket looks to be a pretty good opportunity.

The Bills have played in cold weather their past six games. Allen passed for under 200 yards in three of his five starts in that span. The Jacksonville forecast of 66 and mostly sunny should give Allen a chance to do whatever he needs to do to take over the game.

Thinking we see a shootout that Allen figures out how to win at the end.

Final score: Bills 35, Jaguars 31

Betting on the NFL?

EAGLES (-5) over 49ers | Under 44.5

Nick Sirianni’s decision to rest his starters in Week 17 backfired when the Lions beat the Bears. That meant the Eagles’ no-show loss to the Commanders cost them the NFC’s No. 2 seed. That would have meant a potential second home game and, in theory, an easier path to the Super Bowl.

The upside, however, is that the Eagles come into their wild-card game rested and healthier than they’ve been. There’s something to be said for that, too. Lane Johnson is expected back at right tackle, always a huge development for the Eagles and their ability to control the clock with the running game.

Saquon Barkley also has perked up, averaging 100 yards per game at a clip of 4.87 per carry. The 49ers are missing so many of their stars on defense that it figures to be hard for them to get the ball back for Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey.

Final score: Eagles 24, 49ers 17

PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Chargers | Under 46

As with the Bears-Packers game, the conditions will come into play Sunday night in Foxborough. But unlike that clash of two cold-weather teams, there’s an “indoor” California squad here that will need to brave the 26-degree forecast (RealFeel of 11) and winds at 13 mph gusting to 21.

If the Chargers still had top offensive linemen Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, I’d feel better about them going blow-for-blow with the Patriots in this setting.

Drake Maye has been excellent this season in challenging Stafford for MVP, but it’s his first playoff start, and we don’t really know what to expect. Though I don’t blame anyone for taking 3.5 with the Chargers, that team has been up and down, and the Patriots have been wildly consistent. They won 13 of their final 14 games, and the loss to Buffalo came in a game they were leading 24-7 at the half, and they succumbed to Josh Allen’s magic. The Patriots show up. Always.

Final score: Pats 24, Chargers 20

MONDAY

Texans (-3) over STEELERS | Over 38.5

How much faith do you want to put in Super Bowl winner and NFL legend Aaron Rodgers to be able to carry the Steelers past a fierce Texans defense in the last of the six wild-card games?

Because if you’re backing the Steelers, you have to believe it’s Rodgers who will “find a way.” Yes, Rodgers gave the Steelers the lead they needed to beat the Ravens last week, when Tyler Loop missed a 44-yard field goal attempt from right between the hash marks. I’m not diminishing that. He’s capable of anything.

Yet, a look at the Steelers’ season shows they are 1-5 straight up against teams that are in the postseason. The losses have been by 14, 10, 15, 19, and three (an average of 12.2 ppg).

The Texans were 4-4 against playoff teams but won four of the last five of those (beating the 49ers, Jaguars, Bills, and Chargers). They’ll be sending Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (12) at Rodgers from opposite sides of the defensive line. This would have to be some of Rodgers’ greatest work yet to overcome.

Final score: Texans 27, Steelers 23

LOCK OF THE WEEK: Bills (Locks 6-12 in 2025).

LAST WEEK: 8-8 overall; 1-2 Best Bets

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Dave Blezow’s one of the longest tenured NFL handicappers at the Post with picks dating back to 1994. He won the Post’s NFL betting standings in 2021 and the Playoffs most recently in 2023.

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