49ers face Seahawks with berth in NFC championship on the line

They met at the start of the season — a 17-13 49ers win.

With the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line, they met at the end of the regular season — a 13-3 Seahawks win.

Now the 49ers and Seahawks meet one last time in the most ideal scenario — win or go home.

In the first meeting, Brock Purdy led a game-winning drive, culminating in a touchdown to Christian McCaffrey with 2:54 remaining, as Nick Bosa sealed the win with a strip sack of Sam Darnold on the next possession.

The second meeting came 17 weeks later and went nothing like the first. With injuries finally taking their toll, the 49ers’ offense was anemic against Seattle’s elite defense. Darnold and the running game did just enough to pull out the 13-3 victory.

Now comes the rubber match.

Here are three key storylines that will determine who heads to the NFC championship game

49ers adjustments

Widely considered one of the best coaches in the league, Kyle Shanahan has proven to be elite in game-to-game adjustments throughout his nine-year career in the Bay Area.

In games where they’ve played the same team twice in a month, Shanahan is 5-3 in those rematches. In games where they’ve played the same team twice in three games, Shanahan is a perfect 3-0. The latter is what he’ll face this weekend after San Francisco lost two weeks ago to the Seahawks, before taking down Philadelphia in the Wild Card round last weekend.

“We just played them two weeks ago, so looking back at the other game plan as well and having it sort of fresh in your mind,” Purdy said. “Picking it up where you left off and obviously making some changes where you need to. But yeah, it feels like we just played them.”

In the most recent meeting, Purdy and the offense were completely stifled by Seattle’s top-ranked defense (No. 1 in points allowed, No. 6 in total yards allowed). Purdy threw for 127 yards and an interception while McCaffrey was limited to 57 total yards (23 rushing on eight carries).

Having All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams and second-year receiver Ricky Pearsall (listed as questionable but expected to play) should give the offense a boost. How Shanahan takes advantage of being this healthy will be one to track.

Darnold’s health

By far the most interesting storyline that came out of the week leading up to the game was the health of Darnold.

An extremely late addition to the injury report, Darnold was listed as questionable for the game following an oblique injury he sustained that day.

When speaking with reporters post practice, Darnold stated that there was a “close to a zero-percent chance” he won’t play against his division foes.

“I felt a little something in my oblique,” Darnold said. “Just didn’t want to push it, wasn’t the day to push it. That was it. Just came inside, got some rehab, and feel like I’ll be ready to play Saturday.”

Offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak wasn’t as sure, refusing to talk about Darnold’s health when asked and referring all questions to head coach Mike Macdonald. Although he did admit that backup quarterback Drew Lock did take snaps in practice.

“We had a really good practice,” he said. “Drew got some reps in there and did a really good job. A lot of confidence in Drew. (He’s) been really impressive throughout OTAs and training camp, and in his role.”

Darnold is coming off the second-best season of his career, where he threw for 4,084 yards and 25 touchdowns, while his 67.7 completion percentage was the best of his career.

Early lead

While earning the No. 1 seed is often seen as an advantage because it gives a team a full week off, there’s always that little bit of rust that needs to be knocked off before they can settle into a game.

That’s why it’s vital the 49ers take advantage of playing last week and get off to a fast start on Saturday.

Forcing Seattle to play from behind means the Seahawks will have to rely on Darnold to win the game for them. He led the league with 20 turnovers (14 interceptions, six lost fumbles) this year and has yet to prove himself when the lights are brightest.

In the two biggest games of the 2024-25 season, when he was with the Vikings — week 18 against Detroit and the Wild Card round vs. the Rams — Darnold completed 43-of-81 passes (53.1 percent) for 411 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and 11 sacks. And while Seattle beat the 49ers in week 18 this year, he only threw for 198 yards and no touchdowns.