2026 Australian Open odds, preview, prediction: Can anybody upset Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz?
The 2026 Australian Open gets underway Saturday night, with 128 players vying for the first Grand Slam of the season. Well, sort of.
If you’re to believe the oddsmakers — and recent history — this is really a two-horse race between two-time defending champion Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.
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Sinner and Alcaraz have combined to win the last eight Grand Slam titles.
Sinner, who hasn’t lost a match in Melbourne since falling to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the fourth round of the 2023 Australian Open, is an odds-on favorite to three-peat.
The Italian has -110 odds to lift the trophy at bet365, with Alcaraz just behind him at +160.
Novak Djokovic, the last player not named Sinner or Alcaraz to win a Grand Slam, is the third choice at 12/1. Alexander Zverev (25/1), Daniil Medvedev (28/1), and American Taylor Fritz (28/1) are the only other players listed below 40/1.
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In all likelihood, this tournament will come down to Sinner or Alcaraz. However, neither of those numbers has value, especially since we should see similar prices, either pre-match or live, if they clash in the finals.
Instead, we’ll scroll further down the board and pluck out a few long shots that could make some noise, especially since there are some minor red flags for both the favorites.
In Sinner’s case, it comes down to the early part of his draw.
The Italian is a massive -700 favorite to win his quarter, but there are a couple of potential banana skins in his way, namely Joao Fonseca in Round 3 and Karen Khachanov in Round 4.
For Alcaraz, the biggest red flag is his history at “The Happy Open.” The Spaniard has never advanced past the quarterfinals in Melbourne, and may just not have the weaponry to dominate this event as he has everywhere else.
There is also some uncertainty about how he’ll get going early on after a surprise breakup with longtime coach Juan Carlos Ferrero.
We’re nitpicking on both, but that’s what happens when you’re dealing with these kinds of prices.
Daniil Medvedev (30/1, DraftKings)
A lot of eyes will be on Daniil Medvedev Down Under.
Once considered the best challenger to Alcaraz and Sinner on the ATP Tour, the Russian endured a turbulent 2025 campaign that was riddled by injuries, inconsistency, and the odd on-court outburst.
Medvedev’s struggles led to plenty of questions about his future and whether he was past his prime.
It appears that rumors of the 29-year-old’s demise were a bit premature, as he started his 2026 campaign with a title in Brisbane, losing just one set en route to the trophy.
Medvedev was placed in Alexander Zverev’s quarter, meaning he won’t have to face Alcaraz until the semifinals and Sinner until the finals, should they all get there.
It’s also worth noting that the Moscow native is 7-8 in his career against Sinner.
Ben Shelton (100/1, FanDuel)
You may be wondering why Ben Shelton is 100/1.
The former Florida Gator is ranked No. 8 in the world, he’s a proven Grand Slam performer — and 2025 Australian Open semifinalist — and he won a Masters title last year. That should put him much further up the board, right?
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The problem is that Shelton was drawn into the same quarter as Sinner. The American has defeated the World No. 2 in his career, but that was in their first meeting in 2023. Since then, it’s been one-way traffic, with Sinner winning eight on the spin, including last year’s encounter in the semifinal.
That said, there are still plenty of reasons to get involved at this number. It’s a massive price on one of the few players in this field with legitimate win equity.
If Shelton landed in a different quarter, his price would be slashed in half.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
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