2025-26 NBA title odds, predictions: Can any team compete with the Thunder?
The start of December is the point of the NBA season where we start to separate the wheat from the chaff.
A team’s spot in the standings at this point in the season, roughly 20 games in, doesn’t necessarily predict where they will end up by season’s end, but it’s a good data point when assessing the true contenders.
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There’s one team that doesn’t need a ton of assessment to be considered a contender and that’s the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder. If not for a two-point loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on the second night of a back-to-back, the Thunder would be 22-0 and threatening the Warriors’ 24-0 start during the 2015-16 season.
The Thunder may not be able to top that Warrior team’s start, but they hold the same statistical advantage over the NBA as the Warriors did in their record-breaking campaign. The Thunder have a plus-16.8 point differential compared to the Warriors’ plus-17.3 differential entering December 2015.
Unlike the Warriors, the Thunder have played most of their games this season without their second-best player Jalen Williams, who missed the first 19 games of the season. Frankly, it’s amazing the Thunder are still available at plus-money to win the championship with odds between +135 and +160, depending on the book.
But, again, being great this early in the season doesn’t guarantee a team anything in June — remember, the 73-win Warriors lost in the NBA Finals. That’s why it’s a good time to look for other valuable teams across the league who also have a path to win the NBA Finals.
Before the season, I flagged the Denver Nuggets and New York Knicks as two teams that have value to make the NBA Finals and I still believe that to be true.
The Nuggets have the best offense in the NBA, averaging 125.4 points per 100 possessions this season and Nikola Jokic looks as good as he ever has. They are one of three teams with an expected win total above 60 and yet they have +700 odds to win it all.
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The Knicks have the third-best offense in the NBA — 123.1 points per 100 possessions — despite looking a bit rocky and uneven at times early on. Injuries haven’t allowed us to see the Knicks at full strength, but they have the ceiling of a team that can compete for a title while being priced as a longer shot with 16/1 odds at most books.
The last team I think that offers value right now is the Houston Rockets. Houston is 11/1 to win the NBA title, but have the second-best point differential in the NBA, beating teams by 12.2 points per 100 possessions.
Entering training camp, there was concern that the Rockets would not be able to overcome the loss of their starting point guard Fred VanVleet to a season ending knee injury, but Reed Sheppard is showing everyone why he was the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
The Rockets are a legitimate threat and worth eyeing for investment now that we have a true sample size of the season.
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
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