2025-26 College Football Playoff semifinal predictions, picks, odds
Two years ago, Indiana was still a Big Ten laughingstock, coming off a three-win season, which marked their 26th losing campaign in 29 years. One year ago, the Hoosiers were widely considered frauds, riding an exceptionally soft schedule to their first double-digit win season in program history and an unlikely playoff berth.
Now, they are unquestionably the team to beat.
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No. 1 Indiana (14-0) isn’t unstoppable, but anyone picking against second-year coach Curt Cignetti at this point is choosing to ignore their eyes and focus on history that is no longer relevant.
No. 5 Oregon (13-1) has more blue chippers than the nation’s top-ranked team, a top-10 offense, a top-five defense and two losses in the past two calendar years. But the Ducks’ Oct. 11 defeat demonstrated how the Hoosiers could overcome any disadvantage, snapping Oregon’s 18-game home winning streak, 30-20, despite a subpar performance from Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza, who threw a game-tying pick-six in the fourth quarter.
This season, Dante Moore has faced three top-10 defenses and thrown for an average of 177 yards, with one touchdown and four interceptions. Against Indiana, the Ducks quarterback — who has thrown four interceptions in the past four games — was picked off twice and sacked six times.
“You can say I was seeing ghosts out there,” Moore said this week, channeling Sam Darnold.
Moore will likely be haunted by this semifinal for years, facing a second-ranked Hoosiers defense that has allowed a total of 13 points in its past two games (Alabama, Ohio State) despite facing more talented teams on paper. Should Oregon prevail, it will not be because Indiana — ranked top five in the nation in fewest turnovers and fewest penalties — beat themselves.
The pick: Indiana (-3.5)
Betting on College Football?
Indiana-Oregon Peach Bowl staff picks
Chris Shaw: Indiana
Howie Kussoy: Indiana
Zach Braziller: Indiana
Ted Holmlund: Oregon
Erich Richter: Indiana
Stitches: Oregon
Ethan Sears: Indiana
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